Gewitter- & Unwetter-Update: Starkregengefahr mit Überflutungen. Überblick Niederschlags-Summen.
we want to deal with the current risk of storms tomorrow and also a little bit with saturday and very briefly at the possible precipitation totals for the next two weeks. size it up and say hello to you tomorrow will be tough, at least in some areas with major flooding it's a pretty precarious situation we have and we want to try to analyze why that is this is the map that most of you know with europe on it and here we have germany switzerland austria italy the media lux countries and the lines you see here they are like that were the lines of the same air pressure the narrower the loungers the less it is the more air pressure exchange takes place and showers and thunderstorms are coming and here we are in a nirvana it's like a swamp area with nothing at all the temperatures at 1500 meters altitude are around 15 degrees, which is a very warm air mass for this year time and it's also getting increasingly wet and if we zoom in now, we have the pressure near the ground with 1012 hectopascal 1010 hectopascal 1012 hectopascal so that's nothing there aren't any major differences because here we have this real swamp area and only in the direction of the Benelux countries countries there is a bit of structure where there is sometimes wind and again the temperatures at 1500 meters altitude it is quite warm and then we see such a small circle here that such a small depth we go even further and look at each other the current at 1500 meters and there we have the arrows that draw like
this it is a small low that also has the structure of a small low here then we have a line here and a line here that goes in each direction and we are exactly in between that means you have to imagine that air flows from both sides into a tub or a liquid flows like air into a tub and it starts to rotate here to solidify and will squeeze out, which means that not only do most of the showers and thunderstorms occur in these areas, but also those that remain standing and are stationary and can bring a lot of rain and if we now look at the whole thing again at an altitude of 5.5 kilometers that are, so to speak, the motors of the clouds, which are very high up as they move, nothing is going on there, we have an iso stretcher and there is an isobar, mind you, at a height of 5.5 kilometers and nothing happens in between, this isobar moves from south to north and from north to south and there we have this movement again we are right in the middle and there you can see many small soil deepest are to these small thunderstorm cells you can't analyze exactly where the real ones will show up it's like a saucepan full of pudding and take it we also the stovetop this is the pudding pot and then the stovetop is turned on and it starts to blossom and this mass of flowers how will we tomorrow in the course of the afternoon the largest and roughest structure of the blogger mass is there tomorrow from schleswig holstein to the alps and if we try to be a bit more precise now then we have in the
areas from about the south-east of bavaria to the low mountain range to to the northeast of the rhine roughly along the elbe to berlin the highest risk for the biggest showers and thunderstorms the longest works the strongest and above all remain stationary with selectively 30 to 70 liters per square meter so it may be that it is on a place rains so much that the cellars are full that everything is flooded and two kilometers away basically nothing happens at all you can only see what is in the distance the rain is available and that will happen relatively widely tomorrow on saturday the whole system will move a little further to the east and then we have the greatest risk in the afternoon from the ore mountains to the southeast of schleswig holstein for heavy rain there will be fewer thunderstorms than we have such a heavy rain area where everything is squeezed together and this thing then moves to the north-east until the evening at the same time there are also things on the northern edge of the alps where there is a risk that there can be heavy rain in the areas does that not mean that it will definitely not happen in the pink areas here, but that is where the risk is greatest that the whole thing will happen with the heavy rain is a bit on the alert and watches the sky the clouds only move very slowly but if this thing here tomorrow afternoon and evening moving east you can already see that the thrust is coming in and in the night to sunday sunday disappears then the whole
thing let's go into the precipitation totals that the american gfs model calculates because we have higher precipitation totals in franconia at the edge of the alps i would wish you in Franconia abundant rains also in parts of Thuringia southern sachs en anhalt western saxony calculates most of it and the german model icon, which is a bit fine-meshed, shows the biggest rain around berlin and brandenburg up to mecklenburg western pomerania rhine with sometimes more than 100 liters of rain per square meter and these are large areas that are calculated here and only theoretically if that were to happen the land is flat it’s not like it rains in the mountains offices below and then all the rain pulls all the water into the rivers and disappears again but it stays here it’s then properly watered and it will get pretty wet for a few days but here too in franconia, for example in eastern thuringia in western saxony and in south-eastern saxony-anhalt, some rain is expected there will be more rain and statistically this precipitation is still part of the meteorological summer now in a short cut we go into two precipitation forecasts from the american gfs model for the zero run and the next two weeks and there was, for example, as good as no precipitation indicated on the or it stayed mostly dry rain in the mid-west too then noteworthy rain there is only in the vicinity of the alps for the next two weeks well noticed and the run that followed, the so-called six-run, makes
everything different again and shows a lot of rain, especially around saxony-anhalt, saxony and thuringia via bavaria and baden-wuerttemberg right up to the alps and to northern italy why the big differences between this run and the brings high pressure and a low doesn't mean much with a lot of easterly wind and this run would then penetrate a deep one that could bring a lot of precipitation with a 5 b weather conditions around the weather conditions the basic weather conditions of the next two weeks are predestined for that let's take a quick look three ensembles for two different models begin in bremen in northern germany h here is the red line is the average of the air mass temperature is 30 years at 1500 meters altitude the white line is the average of all model calculations that we find in the federation that there at the beginning is what comes now on the weekend and at the end from the third fourth september there are again a few few precipitation signals this is the american gfs model the european ecm wf model brings much more precipitation not only on the coming weekend but then from the third quarter of september and what we see in light green is the main run of the relative it is far up and mostly dry below so there is always something in the bush now for erfurt where there is supposed to be a lot of rain on the weekend the american gps model also shows this precipitation hat that comes after that there is not much going on the temperatures remain such a dull
weather tends to be above average there is no longer any heat you have to say that European ecm wf model does everything far above average with its main run the rest of the model calculation is further down later a large spread and stronger precipitation signals and now also at the beginning of the weekend morning and on saturday there should be some rain here and last but not least the view after garmisch in the alpine valleys above average temperatures with the american gfs model but constant precipitation signals that means there will always be showers and thunderstorms logically most in the alps according to the european etf model it looks the same they are almost identical here too it will be always give precipitation