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Gewitter- & Unwetter-Update: Starkregengefahr mit Überflutungen. Überblick Niederschlags-Summen.

Aug 25, 2022

Gewitter- & Unwetter-Update: Starkregengefahr mit Überflutungen. Überblick Niederschlags-Summen.

we want to deal with the current risk of storms tomorrow and also a little bit with Saturday and very briefly with the possible precipitation totals for the next two weeks. rate it and say hello tomorrow it will be difficult at least in some areas with major flooding it's a pretty precarious situation we have and we want to try to break down why this is the map most of you know with europe on it and here we have germany switzerland austria italy the means lux countries and the lines that you see here are like this were the lines of the same air pressure the narrower the loungers the less the exchange of air pressure and showers and thunderstorms are coming and here we are in a nirvana, it's like a swampy area with nothing at all the temperatures at 1500 meters up are around 15 degrees which is a very warm air mass for this year time and it's also getting more and more humid and if we zoom in now we have the pressure near the ground with 1012 hectopascals 1010 hectopascals 1012 hectopascals so that's nothing there's no big difference because here we have this real swampy area and just in the direction from the Benelux countries there is a bit of structure where sometimes it is windy and again the temperatures at 1500 meters altitude is quite warm and then we see such a small circle here that at such a small depth we go even further and look at each other another the current at 1500 meters and there we have the arrows that draw like this is a small shoal that also has the structure of a small shoal here so we have a line here and a line here that goes in each direction and we are exactly in the middle that means that you have to imagine that air is flowing from both sides into a tub or a liquid is flowing like air into a tub and it starts to rotate here solidify and it will be squeezed out which means not only most showers and thunderstorms occur in these areas, but also those that remain upright and stationary and can bring a lot of rain and if we now look at everything again at 5.5 kilometers high which are, so to speak or, the cloud motors, which are very high up as they move, nothing happens there, we have an iso stretcher and there is an isobar, look, at a height of 5.5 kilometers and nothing happens in the middle, this isobar it's moving south to north and north to south and there we have this movement again we're right in the middle and there you can see a lot of little deeper soils it's these little storm cells you can't analyze exactly where the real ones will show up it's like a pan full of pudding and we take it too the stove this is the pot of pudding and then the stove is turned on and it starts to bloom and this mass of flowers how we go tomorrow, in the course of the afternoon, the largest and coarsest structure of the mass of bloggers will be there tomorrow, from schleswig holstein to the alps, and if we try to be a little more precise now, then we have in the southeast areas of bavaria to the low mountain range northeast of the rhine more or less along along the elbe to berlin the highest risk for the biggest showers and thunderstorms the longest jobs the strongest and above all they remain stationary with selectively 30 to 70 liters per square meter so it may be that it is in one place it rains so much that the cellars are full that everything is flooded and two kilometers basically nothing happens you can only see what is in the distance the rain is available and that will happen relatively extensively tomorrow Saturday the whole system will move a little more to the east and then we will have the greatest risk in the afternoon from the ore mountains southeast of schleswig holstein for heavy rain there will be fewer storms than we have in such a heavy rainfall area where everything squeezes and then moves northeast into the evening at the same time as well there are things on the northern edge of the Alps where there is a risk of heavy rain in areas, that doesn't mean it definitely won't happen in the pink areas here but that's where the risk is the greatest of everything happening with the heavy rains be a little alert and watch the sky the clouds just move very slowly but if this thing here tomorrow afternoon and evening night is moving east you can already see the push is coming and in the night through sunday sunday it goes away then it all goes into the precipitation totals that the us gfs model calculates because we have higher precipitation totals in franconia in the edge of the alps i wish you plenty of rain in franconia also in parts of south thuringia sachs in anhalt west saxony calculates most and the german model icon which is a bit of a fine mesh shows the most rain around berlin and brandenburg to mecklenburg, western pomerania, rhine, sometimes with more than 100 liters of rain per square meter and these are large areas that are calculated here and only theoretically if that happened, the land is flat it's not like it rains in the offices in the mountains below and then all the rain draws all the water into the rivers and disappears again but it stays here so it's right watered and it will get pretty wet for a few days but here also in Franconia, for example in eastern Thuringia in western Saxony and in southeastern Saxony-Anhalt, some rain is expected there will be more rain and statistically this precipitation is still part of the meteorological summer now in a shortcut we enter two American GFS model precipitation forecasts for run zero and the next two weeks and there was, for example, almost no precipitation indicated in the or mostly dry rain remained in the Midwest as well so noticeable rain is only in the vicinity of the Alps over the next two weeks well noticed and the race that followed, the so-called race six, makes everything different again and shows a lot of rain, especially around saxony- anhalt, saxony and thuringia through bavaria and baden-wuerttemberg to the alps and northern italy why the big differences between this race and the one with high pressure and low don't mean much with a lot of easterly wind and this race then it would go deep which could bring a lot of precipitation with a 5 b weather conditions around the weather conditions the basic weather conditions of the next two weeks are predestined for that let's take a quick look three sets for two different models start in bremen at northern germany h here is the red line is the average of the air mass temperature is 30 years at 1500 meters altitude the white line is the average of all the model calculations we found in the federation that there at beginning is what comes now the weekend and at the end of the third quarter of September again there are some signs of precipitation this is the mo delo american gfs the european model ecm wf brings much more precipitation not only next weekend but also from the third quarter of september and what we see in the light the green is the main race of the relative it is very up and in its mostly dry downstairs so always some bush now for erfurt where it's supposed to be a lot of rain over the weekend the american gps model also shows this precipitation hat coming after that not much to do the temps still such dull weather tends to be above average not hot anymore you have to say european ecm the wf model does everything well above average with its core run the rest of the model calculation is further down more ahead a lot of scattering and stronger signs of precipitation and now also at the start of the weekend morning and Saturday there should be some rain here and last but not least you the view after garmisch in the alpine valleys temperatures above average with the american gfs model but signs of constant precipitation which means there will always be rain and thunderstorms logically most in the alps according to the european etf model it looks the same they are almost identical here will also always give precipitation
gewitter  unwetter update starkregengefahr mit berflutungen berblick niederschlags summen
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