Kann es im Ukraine-Krieg noch einen Sieger geben? | Eine Frage noch … mit Oberst Markus Reisner
Welcome to the Agenda Austria video podcast, my name is Rosemarie Schweiger and today I am speaking with Colonel
Reisner, a military strategist for the Austrian Armed Forces, our topic is the war in
Ukraine, which after more than eight months has still not finished. I present a question and a podcast from Agenda Austria Hello, welcome to the Agenda Austria podcast, my guest is someone our listeners will surely remember, he was chatting with me before asking me as an analyst, so to speak, this cruel war in the
Ukraine, good day , Mr.
Reisner, good day, thank you very much for the invitation, unfortunately our topic is still the same as it was almost six months ago when we last spoke war in
ukraine russian attack on
ukraine how we are talking on may 1st russia had just left from bombing and instead the Russian army is concentrating on the tonnage areas mainly in the east.
They have said that a smart strategy that seems to be working now or was working then is now the missiles are flying towards Kiev again what do you think of that why is it like this now can you explain yes that first thing you have to emphasize is that unfortunately, as you rightly said, I am sitting together again and that you should not. Do not forget that these months have passed, so infinitely more suffering has happened again and that, of course, should also affect the conversation, despite all these very technical expressions, always remind us that at the end of the day there are people who are suffering from the scourge of war, so to speak, the conflict itself can now be divided into several phases distinguish who are also experts agree that the first P Hase was this successful defense of the
Ukraine against attack, especially by the Russians on this town, then he led the Russians to carry out this change of approach asis and then that was the second phase that was in the summer when you didn't know that
Ukraine would be able to do it is possible where the Russians are and they also changed tactics to use a massive study where there are these images that remind us more of the three 19 /16 or the Isonzo 1917/18, the modern warfare before which we always believed to be more accurate and cleaner and obviously not the case and then late summer
Ukraine actually did it, surprising many but with the provision of the weapons that were delivered from the West and above all to recover the change in momentum, that is, to get out of that negative momentum to go on the offensive in a third phase and those were the offensives, that is, we have seen it in hakiv, but now also in part in person and yes, the result is that, in principle, we almost have to see this conflict, we have a boxing match, so one round after another there are points wins but still no knockout. right now it seems that way or at least that is how it is presented in the reports too like
Ukraine made a point to stay in their image is correct because yes the point is of course we always have to understand that this war is coming, but an information war is also an information war, so it means a fight for the information space, the fight also for our opinion and our attitude to this conflict, the military must see the situation the way objective and neutral as possible so that we can get a realistic picture of the situation, which means that we should not make the mistake of following only one side of the story, we should look at both sides so that we can get an idea of what is really happening and what needs to be emphasized is that, surprisingly to many,
Ukraine was able to win this conflict at first in the sense of this defensive people and then actually managed to achieve a res surprising result again and again in the following months.
The thing is, though, Russia isn't done yet, but it still has capabilities that it uses against
Ukraine and I gain two examples where you can see that very well. The military distinguishes between different levels. of warfare So what happens on the battlefield in front of the donkey, the superior of a city, an operation as you call it, but there is also the strategic level where the opponents try to harm each other so that they can no longer continue the war . and so we see here on both sides the successes and failures p The assassination followed by
Ukraine is mainly at the tactical operational level, that is, the successes of taking southeast Haki, for example, from the city of Liman or also from a person, but on the other hand we have the Russians trying to harm
Ukraine on the strategic level and these are these devastating attacks, especially now in recent weeks on critical infrastructure, which means that the paradox is that despite the success in the field of battle, there is still a danger that
Ukraine will be at a disadvantage because there is no science behind these ballistic attacks To counter missiles with marshals and drones, a terrible winter that comes then, of course, is devastating for the population there and I have always said that in the summer he must ensure that
Ukraine can secure the depth of space of his country, especially through Anti-aircraft. defense to stop these very Russian attacks and we're seeing this in a devastating way right now with these attacks on critical infrastructure, which I was also told in May was, among other things, that unfortunately this could probably be a long war, it seems they were right there is some end in sight yes the end always has to be so see almost all military successes must be measurable yes that means weapons delivering animals on the one hand it doesn't say nothing about the outcome of a referee war carrying out terror. attacks like the Russians on the population say nothing about that, whether it is the result that you really need measurable successes measurable successes, for example, the reconquest of areas, for example, as seen with hakiv or now also partly with Persona , but a measurable people would also be, for example, the capture of thousands of soldiers and then also the Collapse of a front section or the withdrawal of an opponent, for example in Fa All, from Russia to Russian territory again and we have not yet had that, we have successes but we don't have significant successes and that's the problem as long as there are no significant successes, the war will continue because it needs advances in success for the prerequisites to create that at least one of us has to start negotiations in order to avoid a total defeat and so on, unfortunately this conflict is not yet, but it is still going on, which I wonder is the longer it takes, can there still be a winner in the end?
I mean, if you look at what has happened in these eight months, let's start with Russia. Russia is the aggressor at the economic level Russia does not become a trading partner for a long time for most countries, at least in Europe, the Russian economy is unfortunately suffering less from sanctions, but it is already clearly suffering and entire areas have been destroyed in the
Ukraine, millions of people have fled, the economy will shrink by a third this year, poverty has increased tenfold, so I miss it slowly imagining what a good ending or even an end to the world should look like. then it says winner I would not even use this term victory in this context or I would avoid it because there can be no winners on the contrary, in reality we are facing the ruins of the European security of the European security architecture, we are also facing the ruins of the legacy of our grandparents after the end of the second world war, we all agreed in unison that this time of mass conflicts should have t erminated, we even renounced the concept of war and we tried and the conflict was named yes, an international armament of conflicts, not an international conflict, there were those who ignited, international humanitarian law, all these achievements meant that we were actually convinced that this time of war was over of course there were gatherings for everyone globally and also quite a few just think differently about interventions in afghanistan but that is happening again in europe with such massive violence it is actually a world thing past, so there can be no winner here. , yes,
Ukraine can have a defensive success, so to speak, a success in that sense that the aggressor is Russia does not manage to destroy the country or even take a property in no case can there be a success of the Russians because how should it be this when a country just takes a part of another country in complete violation of international law and the obvious I tried to destroy and that's what we are at the moment the strategy is based on you only inflate the things you didn't get is just inflate completely and, as it were, try to destroy and the European population, which is part of an economic war, has to take into account that this society in Europe has to deal with the struggle with the conflict that such people have to face and that we will feel the consequences, yes we will not starve and we will not freeze to death, but the loss of prosperity is knocking at the door and the question is how big will be the extent to which I will as a result of this too? well it turns out in the last consequence for us there will only be losers you have already pointed out several times that Russia always threatens with nuclear weapons more or less directly when its own army is on the defensive, that is, when it simply does not work in German, but I wonder what does that mean for the further course of this war is supposed to mean because as a European you have to hope that Russia, however you define it, doesn't leave the field a big winner, but if they're on the defensive or something it should be so strong defensively that I really don't see any other way out that one could hope for, much less how can one expect now that that's exactly the big question?
The big question arose from the fact that with the invention of nuclear weapons with the advent of the nuclear age, many factors that had previously been in the war already came into play have changed significantly, yes, that is why a country like Korea of the North, for example, you can still leave 100s whatever you want because you just have these nukes and that of course also resonates when you look at these conflicts because the question is of course floating in the room yes the elephant in the room, so to speak, the Russians would, if worst came to worst, for example, if you were cornered or w If they basically can't hit their targets anymore, they use nukes and there are two camps here, one says they wouldn't do that because you know you can't catch it anymore, it would escalate right away, so don't be afraid of this. threatens that they won't and the other side says fine, but the nuclear age has changed everything and we don't know it and there was a situation like in Cuba where everything escalated to intolerance and then thank God we knew we had come close .
Yes, there is no definitive answer to this that history will give us, that is, in the events that we will later experience, ultimately, in the worst case, we have to take risks and both sides naturally have arguments for and against because one side says ok when we show our latest solo on drugs with nukes so scared to give in then the other side has won the exact opposite of that the other side says we shouldn't rule out negotiations because the Negotiations should give us the opportunity to get out of this situation and both parties have something for themselves, one side says that we must not give in to pressure and let what is ours pressure and the other side says pay attention, we must act with foresight, we must not pass overlooked at the point where there may be no going back and that's why it's so important to always look at exactly what channels they're opening up on and that's something I personally find devastating, this c onflict, that you exclude this type of communication between you, yes, it is clear that as the war progresses, you fall into the situation of saying we are the good ones, you are the bad ones and both sides say that there is no communication with the other. another but if d The end of the communication was really bad, because then of course the weapons basically set the tone and we have to get out of this participant, so Selinski, the president even officially banned it, it is prohibited to do any negotiations With the Russians, of course, there is background communication in a certain framework and that still gives hope despite everything, think, for example, of the prisoner exchanges that take place, so you can see that people do talk to each other. yes and that of course through these channels in the worst case or even in the best.
If there is something there that I can develop, the point is that both parties are convinced that they can achieve the objectives. Russia is still convinced that it can achieve its goals. There is hardly any record of what the president said in his famous speech. on February 21. On the other hand, we have President Zelensky, who of course points out that in order to exist as a sovereign state,
Ukraine also needs the economic foundations that can also be found in the south and east, which also consist of the connection with the needs of sea routes, whether it is the Black Sea or much more, but here it is that the lambs that both sides are still not ready to get closer and one must not forget that deep down, of course, we have support for
Ukraine,on the one hand from Europe, but above all from the US and also covertly, for example from China and India for Russia think about it and in my opinion that was not replicated enough in the West in the result of the 20th party congress communist where it was interesting that in the end the foreign ministers of Russia and China in an almost joint press release, but they have made very strong words that no one can stop China and Russia and since both countries have the right to continue to implement their success and of course it's these small signs that should worry us in the West, i.e. the axis between Russia and China is stable at the moment, you could say that there is anyway we keep telling ourselves that it is not so and that the Russians can't even have a stable relationship with the Chinese or the Chinese fear for their markets and so on, you can see very well how things are in this grenade example 20 lectures from matches where there is obviously good communication there is a similar situation with India which would not be forgotten either, just keep pointing out that the problems of the Europeans are not their problems and that is only good and right if India can buy cheaper raw materials now in Russia , which then the Europeans buy dearly because now history has turned so big that they are the winners and not the losers, as it was in colonial times, yes, we were there when they had the atomic bomb Russia does not have nuclear bombs
Ukraine they were still now were now Russia were now dirty bombs in which
Ukraine should work what to do with it yes now it is again part of this information war yes then the war will always have to be historical so to speak but nowadays one tries to describe it better in the fossil domains, yes, there is this district leadership air war. maritime war that we immediately think of, we will think of a war, very few people think of space afterwards.
Space also has a very special meaning here, for example, if you think about Elon's beloved muscle system and that's also very interesting, it exerts a very strong influence here, but there are two domains that are very significant, that's cyberspace. and also, so to speak, that information space is cyberspace, you actually thought a lot more was going to happen, a lot happened, but you couldn't decide how you imagined it, but cyberspace works almost like a magic carpet in which the information is delivered that really influences our attitude and our assessment of the conflict and of course Russia is trying to be very specifically active in the information space so if you say that correctly if the front is not working , you see something different and you try to distract yourself from this or you try to create fear in a very specific way, so here are three examples where you can see very well that once the situation ion with grain exports thinks about grain again, the floorboards were briefly canceled again, then it is obvious again, so the situation with this dirty bomb works, it is not just the dirty bomb, it is also the threat of the use of weapons, but also, for example, the situation at this nuclear power plant, so the danger of a detonation then leads to a Chernobyl-like catastrophe and of course everything overlaps and affects us all And the question is how you will deal with it Europe if it no longer supplies Russia with 42% of the raw materials it has supplied so far then there will be a huge economic welcome what does that mean for all of us then there is nothing about this dirty bomb it is just an invention I think they have it really good again. this conflict that always arises on different levels yes, you warned in an interview that
Ukraine could run out of trained people, how did you mean that, why exactly the background is that you have to understand that we have two states and two populations facing each other? here and that obviously recognizes a disproportion let's have on the one hand 144 million Russians with a Nazi wehrpot of at least 30 million reservists and, on the other hand, if you count the refugees, 35 million from
Ukraine who are already in the fifth wave of mobilization, that means that all men are recruited up to the age of 60 and now the delivery of arms.
It is also one thing the motivation of the soldiers and the will to fight and, so to speak, the will to fight for the country is another but now even more if there is not a situation in which Russian society refuses to support the president or even a similar situation arises as in October 1917, when there is a revolutionary situation, then Russian society will continue this conflict, it does not mean that Russian mothers will also cry for their children and fathers and husbands, but rather that they will continue, in on the other hand we have the brave
Ukraine fights with high morale but supports before arms whoever simply wants to finish has the potential and Europe has discarded itself so to speak by deploying soldiers in this conflict cake the question is simply who had the staying power here and do they have validity to the victims because that sounds a bit like hundreds of thousands of dead soldiers now that's not the case I don't think so or we can assume both sides on several 10,000 dead soldiers we have a very high number missing this could be this number so to this day it has not been communicated in any way to the north we always have the
ukraine number of the fallen russian soldiers but the number now far exceeds 70,000. so that would actually have to exceed the number of soldiers who marched into the
Of course you also have to classify them very clearly in the area of information warfare, but it can be assumed that both sides of the Dutch have suffered losses, yes, we will probably get the final numbers here and, as I said, it is not just about the soldiers, you think of the civilians when the city of Mario Poland the city of mariopol had the problem that the russians were advancing so fast that they were surrounded, the population could not escape in this hail of bombs and shells thousands of people died, probably never we will know the number, but that is not available to us either because there are almost no journalists there or almost no one who can operate in these occupied areas shot down 526 tons and that is Don't ask the question who told it all in detail, yes, but that, of course it is also very clear the attempt to show each side that we have successes in this conflict this is part of this war game you almost have to say yes so everyone has they have to try. the success of belittling others and increasing one's own success is a particularly cruel war or we just believe it because we can see it in such detail yes this war has some facets that we family members believed in in the past and so that is For example, the fact that we are again using weapon systems that have not really been used in this capacity since the end of WWII, we think of these multi-chain launch systems, for example bm27 Uhr or Garn BM 30, rather than in weapon systems that are actually for a hot Cold War have been developed or this rocket launcher of the type the os1 Buratino in German Pinocchio is the e One of these rockets has a devastating effect when, after detonation, we have 1400 degree heat in a 25 meter radius for 1.4 seconds so a devastating weapons system and if you consider it to be used in civilian areas, in civilian living quarters. areas then it is of course devastating as such yes then of course also the fact that we are seeing more and more a d-humanization and that is also something that is too devastating yes then the Russians call
Ukraine the fascists yes it is much easier to kill to such a fascist
Ukraine, the Russians call the orcs, yes, based on Lord of the Rings, so to speak, it's easier to kill a place here than a Russian soldier, well, and you probably see it that way in almost all wars, or we have to think that yes, yes in our social development we have evolved and suddenly it hits us and we know before that, we are not really beaten by anything, but actually we see exactly the same mechanisms that we saw ago 100,000 or more and that's exactly what's happening and the other one would be the devil that you have to fight and because he's a devil you can make it a lot easier so he's always right in the middle if we had known everything and This before February 24, what we know now, how this war is going on, how cruel it is, we would have done something different than if this knowledge had been made available to us, then surely we would have looked at the situation seriously and that is yes, the problem that we have had in the last few years that we have faced with these conflicts has been explained when someone in di The crystal ball would have let it sow and would have shown us that either you take this situation seriously now or it will happen and I will show you now in this crystal ball.
I think then those responsible would surely have treated this situation seriously, but that's fiction, we know. that is not possible now it is also true that many say that well these and the indicators were there before but I warn you that here too it is always like that and that is also an unpleasant habit that is a historian who always gives you the impression that history is it developed linearly and they deceived it but I don't know if I always give the example back who would have said in 1914 that's four years namely 1918 neither the Kaiser is still alive nor does the empire exist they would have been declared insane in 1914 if it says today right, it was very clear that it would come like this and the multi-ethnic state and so on who would have believed in 1918 that someone said that in 20 years with National Socialism we will be on the threshold it is still much more devastating even then it would have been crazy for everyone to explain to me only the First World War behind of us who at that time had not yet ate the first world but the great war now we will not be too stupid and give them a new sled, no, and we also thought that in 1945, yes, and then we felt some security, um, internationally, because of the unknown United Nations, and we said that belongs in the past, of course, they gave wars and cold wars such deputies, but The fact that one of the elementary forces they had breaks again on ours already shows that we have obviously neglected this great good of peace and the preservation of peace in recent decades also in Europe we always have European security structurally acharchi and about all the other things but obviously we shouldn't have taken it too seriously yes you mentioned it very briefly I think we just passed the 1960s anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis when the world was really very, very close to nuclear war at the time it was about the Soviet Union had stationed medium-range missiles with nuclear-powered warheads in Cuba and the US couldn't They weren't going to accept that at all, and it was a hair's breadth away from the conclusion of a nuclear missile what happened next, but upset that
Ukraine was taken to heart by the West, but says history doesn't repeat itself, but it follows the same patterns to make a certain comparison, yes of course it always means that Russia is not doing anything at all regarding what
Ukraine is doing and whether it will do it now. to become another member or not that the Russians should not be approached, of course, there are points in international law, such as the right of peoples to self-determination and other things that we have all agreed on, including the Soviet Union, where Russia can be seen as the successor, so it clearly has auch in international treaties certain intentions supported by all and so we have very clear in recent years a doctor who is creeping more and more in the world than international law it is simply being violated with hand and foot yes and there with the use of different weapons systems and other things and that one simply accepts that, ultimately, the fact is that the Cuban crisis was also resolved through negotiations, yes, before it was it to become a hot conflict, as you also know, most people don't know that you have to look at the details.
Was it also the case that the Cuban Missile Crisis was t It was still dangerous because the military had just stepped up and there was this situation where a Russian submarine for a Soviet submarine was dropped by American destroyers with practice depth charges, the Russians thought they were under fire and was about to shoot down a bottom of nuclear screen on di This American ship and it was only prevented because the chain of command on the Soviet submarine consisting of three officers consisted of the captain, the first officer and the political commissar because they did not agree for a second, yeah , the political commissar opposed that. and that's why it didn't come to that, but this effect of course could have led to such an absolute escalation and that's what makes these conflicts so difficult, because even though we think we can control it, something can happen from the dynamics of it. conflict house that couldn't be easier so you shake and rattle the saber and at some point the other man gave up you didn't want to be afraid anymore fear that's also the problem but with these threats you look hereyou have to have it imagine how two of them are sitting in a boat yes and I say I would like to have something from you and if I don't know omme then I throw them into the water and they say I don't think thanks for moving them until they can no longer carry it they say please please I will yes but neither of us are aware or I am that if they both fall in the water maybe they both drown, that's the drama that results from that, um, and now if you take the Cuban missile crisis, for example, and also the time after that, you can see that there were always events, there were these years of exercise in the 80s in NATO where once a situation arose and it seemed so high that it worked like that, they actually started making preparations, then they recognized the car with its reconnaissance systems or this famous example but the Russians created a new one used satellite reconnaissance system where suddenly thought the Americans were shooting rockets from the responsible The officer and the officer Russia saw each other affected due to self-assessment.
He says that seems strange to him now that he doesn't trigger this counter from the system. What she proposes. There were some situations. The good we can take away. this time it is and i am of that i am convinced that despite the agony of war both sides have learned from it and have certainly tried to refine the mechanisms in such a way that escalation cannot occur and i believe that is the case now, before It's really about what could lead to this escalation, I think someone in Russia and someone in the US or maybe China and so forth will pick up the phone and at least try to get through to each other because they know they can.
I didn't get it anymore, if only the soviet union has what the use of nuclear weapons has, it has this famous dead man circuit that's what the russians say and ja ben said that if you launch your rocket at us it's fine, but even if no one live with us the system will ask you automatically and you will also be destroyed and this is pointed out over and over again that this is something you seem to be but then some can suddenly gain momentum and that has to be avoided i have to avoid that i dont think so that they are now in talks, negotiations between the US and Russia, surely there will be contacts, there have also been contacts at the military level in recent weeks the exchange, given this, this accusation, so to speak, the dirty bomb that is using
Ukraine, yes, also on the phone with some other military representatives from different countries, there are certainly communication channels, and that is also played over and over again, there was once a newspaper said that speeches are not they were including us or we want to talk to each other so it's also about sensitivities n you have to talk to us because you can't come in and say good night you have to negotiate with us it doesn't work without us but i think you can assume there is definitely communication and that's something that should calm us down anyway, that happened in the conflict itself as lines of communication, yes, and the proof of this is that I have already mentioned, for example, the fact of the exchange of prisoners between Russia and
Ukraine, but there must be communication with each other. how much at what time and so on there are still a lot of smart people who say it could have been relatively easy to prevent this war they hinted a bit earlier that now we just have to take certain things more seriously the fall of the eastern bloc was even active somehow way for the present and others, for what has the next Closeness experienced Russia would have liked to have sewn something to Europe and the Americans prevented that at the time as you see that is the story of a thief or something like that yes I do not want to start because it is worth the facts are worth assessing and judging in detail.
In the last few decades I am perhaps a little too young, 45 years old, and that is really an older statesman, if you will, but I think you can assume that we have simply gone through two different developments, On the one hand, we have the development of the West to whom we also belong, which experienced something very positive in the event that the Soviet Union and an existing iron trap v i saw something very positive the wind of change of the scorpions who said the end of history democracy has arrived said yes we have that very positively experienced yes and the Central European states the Eastern European states ever wanted of course immediately also in the European Union, they wanted this historical imbalance to be restored, and secondly, we experience it very positively, as you can also see, for example, Gorbachev is a person who will be with us very positively in the near future on the other side in the former Soviet Union and specifically here in Russia, this time felt very differently.
It felt like a moment when order had turned to chaos. Yes, for example, there was a very negative communication because he or eleven are actually the oligarchy then suddenly they gave you this space before you had little but then nothing there were long queues there was no security of supply yes and suddenly you were not big anymore you know the dreaded empire in the east but you got hit by drugs and that's why it's so important to understand why Putin started Russia's success sen above all to return this pride to tell them I'll do it again that he's back at the moment that once has such there is also this concept of homosomizing the kiss yes that is really people that often had a side effect and you have to understand of course that there are these two perceptions and that we really only focused on ours but never in the other, so we didn't even realize if they were happy with the way we treated them or not.
We also saw the East. primarily as an economic area where of course we can be successful in terms of economics and of course also be able to raise money accordingly, but we've never dealt with the people, yes, and also with the long-term character of people since the Soviet era, yes, that is not forgotten even little things, yes, like Russia, where women usually have children very soon and then the ore is carried out by Babushka, so where values change more slowly from which is perhaps the case with us, yes, and I think a lot of misunderstandings happened here, eventually turning in a direction that we missed and where we were no more successful in picking up another one that was then encapsulated and found in their narrative and you can see that now but russia didn't say we are fighting
ukraine no its a liberation fight russians fight to survive against the west the best are fighting us they want to take everything from us they want to impose They want us their will and say how we have to live we don't want that and that's the point that's why the average Russian finds his way in this Russian propaganda because everything fits and if he then is like grandfather listens to grandmother in the Great Patriotic Warrior If the fight against fascism and then maybe even have photos to back it up, then of course we deliver on everything, yeah it's perfectly clear who's the good guy and at least I think the bad guy in a moral narrative let's just say that, but I am still surprised sometimes by the reports or certain narratives that are being moved, this sabotage of the pipelines, for example on Nord Stream 1 and 2, I read very often that it must have been the Russians I wonder why the Russians do that, how do you feel about it?
Is it so clear to you that it must have been the Russians or is it logical? It's also a very interesting example where you can ask yourself who has these two main conduits. it's actually four conduits, so there are always two threads, who destroyed it? open let's take a quick look at how a Then all of a sudden we heard there was obviously an incident yes we saw it because of the methane coming out but some of the lines were no longer filled with gas but methane because in principle the flow it had already stopped or it didn't happen at all. obviously there was damage and then Russia was very quick with the explanation model when Rosa said alarm sabotage the West the US Great Britain destroyed it so that we can no longer more or less supply Europe and of course it has integrated very well in the narrative of the russians it is good that they have settled here, yes, but now that winter is approaching and the population is also increasingly restless, keyword: security of supply and then wondering why the russians do not deliver, yes, the Russians now have a chance to say yes, we would never deliver, but we can say yes, no because the West destroyed these pipelines and what's to come.
It's also interesting that a few days later the Russian side said well all four aren't broken anyway one of which still works so you can get out of the 2 so maybe we could do business after all think about it . again yes and that of course are indicators that are already pointing in that direction we do not have clear evidence right now today the british ambassador was quasi summoned in moscow where they presented the evidence because russia is convinced that it was the british minister of Great Britain, which cut it off perfectly within the former prime minister it's obviously written in black today so we did it yes but here we are also in the middle of a fight in the information space and the problem that we often don't understand is that our Societies are actually becoming more and more difficult coming out of the corona period must be informed in such a way that they also demand Believe what the state offers when we understand the beginning of the positive element that Hobbs considered as the leviathan, that is, the contract between the state and its citizens, but we must also recognize that the state is trying to inform its citizens about maturity. when the state loses this sovereignty of interpretation or if he doesn't know what's going on then of course it's very dangerous so what can you take out of this nosteam situation first of all it's a shame we didn't have the skills to be able to do it. clarify that there, that we can give an answer and that the second is that the corona crisis then led to the fact that the population is very insecure and relatively quickly believes the things that seem most conclusive to it and that is why we see this fight. for the sovereignty of interpretation here too some say it was the Americans because the Americans want the Europeans to fall into a recession and the Russians can no longer deliver because we need the Russian raw materials for one explanation model and the other explanation model it's the Russians themselves because they were able to deliver a perfect narrative with that and some say yes also that the Russians have really done with Europe t very interesting Putin said it recently he is not talking about west-east orientation anymore but about a new southern orientation of the Russians in the future, where they will then try to close new markets, new raw materials, buyers in the south. and southeast, yes, and do you have a theory about the pipeline?
Who could have been interesting? Now there are a few shots of staying with her being destroyed, and of course there are a wide variety of performance options. There are two basic options for how you can jump one is from the inside so there are for example on these pipelines so called cleaning robots one would say newts or mull where one can basically drive through the tube that they would offer to prepare it for an explosion then the Russians will of course also plant explosives from the outside. You can do something they also try with the theoretically mechanical.
To separate the pipe, the pictures we have now don't give any clear indication that it could have been done, but they are both clear, for example, if you see that obviously deformation has occurred from the inside to the outside, the explosion should give them has it happened yes if you see he is almost verbal inside it may have been his treasure although there is no definitive answer here either yes you will get this answer sometime yes maybe not so fast but possibly in years and as I always know, historians will come back then they come into play in the opening smelling like this and then all of a sudden they find things and say well it was very clear but that and then it clicked there yes at the time is of course a pawn on this this sovereignty of interpretation yes and, by the way, they are not only these with blind but also much more with yes but and these are now more or less in the circumstance more or less who knows yes because you must not forget that we have now had a series of events that they should give us food for thought, yes, we always look at what is happening in battle, but when sabotage actions in North Germany Deutsche Bahn think, we think of interrupted power supply. island we think about the interruptions in the submarine cables that this city found in the Mediterranean and in the Atlantic they think it has something to do with the war it definitely has something to do with the war here it is also very clear I think the attempts to put the signal and to show what you could do if you're not careful, yes, and that's exactly the problem we're in now that the conflict can go from being a regional conflict to a supra-regional conflict, not just supra-regional. in the sense of the economic war that we're already in, but also in the sense that one is trying to harm the other by destroying critical infrastructure by attacking there and here it would be a pretty viable theory that if Russia is cornered trying to bring this war to our countrieshitting us on critical infrastructure and damaging us here of course not in vain for example now recently if you look In Norway it was the case that on October 31 the Norwegian armed forces were put on alert because of course Norway has a very special role, also in the European supplies because of course the loss of resources that you could get from Russia now gives you a lot of hope Austria also assumes that we can get the gas from Norway not much more easily than if the Russians started right there and prevented that we then have the next challenge that we then have to evaluate accordingly in Europe they could have done it first before they would have done it to destroy their own pipeline first go broke a bit another which of course it would have been quite possible to do but the question it's what it feels like behind it and how one fits in then, as I said, there are historians, then we explained and now we say very clearly that they had to do it now because then it was exactly the right thing to do right now we're kind of helpless in the face of the situation and that's what's devastating because we just have to start acknowledging that we really are experiencing a tipping point and a tipping point means we're not there anymore , we can assume that time can go back, so the time before February 24 is a thing of the past and the time after announces this new time, these new time walls have opportunities, let's also think about climate change, for example, where you now have the opportunity too economically and also with regard to energy supply to establish yourself in such a way that these intentions are also followed does what we have basically explained to ourselves, more climate-friendly keyword and so on, and also offers the possibility that we will again develop some resilience so that we are not surprised by new challenges, with how was the case with the corona crisis o In the case of this war in
Ukraine the question is how long we as Europe can cope with the consequences well inflation is only partly due to this war but these Sanctions are also causing massive damage to Europe.
They are massively looking at Russia, they are also harming Russia, but of course they do not have the effect that we have if they gave us almost everything as a goal, then the war, they will not end this card game where you use the possibilities that a state has to produce so to speak that's economics that's military diplomacy or situation picture we need a clear and always in this dil emma yeah there's a good saying by karl kraus that basically says, at first you think you can harm to the other person, then you get to the point where you realize, well he's not doing any better and in the end you're sure they're both really bad wow yeah that's war believing that war can be fought fairly The first fallacy is to believe that war can be fought, that there are winners and losers, there is also a mistake, because everyone loses at the end of the day, and in the worst case, it is their life, and that is the dilemma that we leave in the war wagon here. is and ape It's brimstone and now we have to do everything we can to get her out of this room again that's the point and we have to recognize that she won't go alone if we don't start it no one else will do it for us now are you begging for negotiations or how am I to understand that we always keep the option open through K feel communication where is the time that the other is ready to approach the other so to speak that very little listen to it very little but now should hit the big moment of diplomacy for 8 months somehow, obviously, the suffering is not great enough and also That is nothing new because if we look at the past, we see that the conflicts started in euphoria and only then the pressure of suffering became unbearable no matter which side it came from. you will address and forgive me for that, but if he now historical comparison, then it seems to me a little that we are on our way from 1914 to 1915 and that was the year 1915, it was the year of desil ussion when you realized that what you assumed did not work and in reality you have to be prepared for a long war, the war economy that then rationing measures were installed and so on and so on yes and as I said the historian always tells us that it was all so clear that it was not like that because Russia too, for example in 1941 Nazi Germany practically invaded Russia and marched to Moscow who would have thought that the Soviet Union catches up and then, a few years later, with the help of the The US and the aid supplies, basically represents a decisive factor in the liberation of Central Europe, a liberation that many did not feel at all if, well, I advocate that on the one hand we follow an objective picture of the situation so that let's know exactly how both parties are doing and always make sure that whenever a signal comes in we also hear it and don't discount having seen it and therefore just trigger an escalation in sanctions.
Europe or the EU, the West had this from the beginning. These wars of aggression have already been said so that's it with Russia now we won't buy anything from them as soon as that is somehow possible so no gas no oil no coal whatever. I've been wondering ever since if that was so smart with a normal one If I say kidnappers one would negotiate one wouldn't tell it makes no difference if you kill them all now or if they release them immediately you go straight to prison for life which one wouldn't what would be done in russia they have made it smart yes even if it counterattacks if you take the comparison with the geisen then i will give you the example of
ukraine then you can see
ukraine as a woman who is being raped and who they say you have to have a little bit of be careful when you sit in several places so as not to hurt the attacker, but suddenly you could have lasting consequences that the aggressor will do it or
Ukraine will do everything and decide this conflict for itself, of course, in principle, the end justifies the means, that it's quite clear, it would be presumptuous here to accuse that, but of course you don't have to accuse me of finding it somehow from a Western perspective a bit reckless yes wouldn't it have been smarter if Russia opened the door a bit this debate gets us nowhere because it's completely useless to talk about the past that was still possible yes but it's over and the problem is that we always have this concept of reason, then we would have to act sensibly we would have acted sensibly we don't really have it it's only when it suddenly hits us that we suddenly get worried yes and if you address sanctions you explain that if you try to understand how a state can project power or four Opportunities, you can deploy the armed forces until the 19th century 20th he k When the economy starts, that's how we defined ourselves, especially after the end of the Second World War, you need photos of the situation, you have to know realistically how you are doing to the other person, and he has the diplomacy compares because they put their military card in
Ukraine we were surprised because we actually discarded it and of course we didn't play our card m ilitar as a post-heroic society, we played our economic card and we thought, well, with our economic card when you see the Russians there, so to speak, they can already agree, so to speak, but that hasn't happened so far, because you had to take it into account in the time factor, it just takes a long time and the question is, are the Russians maybe not resilient, that we expected that now we are discussing the sanctions package 7.8 in the action package 7 was the thing well no would necessarily want to not have to be there and we need an exception gets an exception and they talk about what gas yes that was then zahnlast however it was a great success Europe went through it and with a common voice tried to counter that yes now you are in the dilemma you can obviously see in this card game, well that's not enough let's use the military card now yes we supply weapons but that was it so how is the situation?
Well, the situation is so clear. it is because the propaganda gives us inaccurate images of the situation that wants objectivity that says that it is good that diplomacy is coming that is what we determined in advance that it would have to do more essentially that is the situation disappointment one last question if we sit down together again In six months it would make me happy that we are going to talk so I hope it has not happened that this war overregion always ends what is decisive, yes, that it continues to be a hectare at the regional level and regionally it was agreed that despite everything both parties have hits or misses that then force them to the negotiating table of last resort, on the one hand, the admission that they have not made it and then possibly the keyword withdrawn Russia possibly also with another government that is not on the table in this moment but it could well be and perhaps also on the other hand
Ukraine that one recognizes that now it would jeopardize the beginning of everything if one continued now and resign For example to some degree right now and trying to improve that through binding international treaties but it didn't risk the whole country I know when I say it like that that's the limit of what can be said but it should be realistic about why that is a limit because, of course, we clearly say that
Ukraine must be supported to the last degree of devotion so that your country can be reconquered.
Yes, only the question is that there is nothing left, so no one has anything but that can only be decided by
Ukraine, yes, that is what many do not understand, only
Ukraine can decide how far it wants to go in this way. e and right now she says we want to go to the final question it will remain the same as Russia Russia says we want to achieve these goals no matter what maybe there is also an admission here to say no it's not possible we have to to do something and if you look at history this conflict is unfortunately a conflict like many others and you can see that historically it was always the case that it was not a consequence of its time, finally the admission that there was a solution However, what he saw it was the capitulation of one of the conflicting parties.
Perhaps it was also the freezing of the conflict. Yes, we still have these borders today. I will be there in half a year if we meet like I said then still walk. I'm afraid I unfortunately don't have to. This almost occurs an effect as I said before, so for example, one side would have to carry out a radical change of direction that could be that, for example in Russia, society suddenly says it's okay, we no longer follow these objectives of the President, not following them any longer could be looking back, so this is that moment in October 1917 that I was always talking about, it could also be that suddenly something happens in the
Ukraine, critical infrastructure is permanently destroyed, the population He says it can't be done anymore, how cold we are hungry we need a different situation we need to negotiate those would be quite realistic scenarios I think tragically we will only see in the spring where we are now winter is coming both sides will try to control each other during the winter the russians will try of holding the land they have occupied they have quasi-occupied the reservists come in december january but wi To see what kind of influence t It has this,
Ukraine is trying to use coolants to further advance the momentum that it now has on the battlefield and fighting this strategic attrition in depth by supplying the air-launched system and whatnot, we'll see. how is it then in the spring after this harsh winter also in Europe and then you will see which side is still ready for an offensive or not, so theoretically there will be a new attack by the Russians even if it is not likely now or will be. be a new offensive druggie and the result will be in the summer where we can meet in the summer okay there was a decision or not and I think in the fall I would probably see if a conflict is really ready to collapse or not but there are still many months to the turn of the year and probably many thousands Dead Sea thanks for the interview thanks so much for listening