Max Otte: Warum die Welt gerade crasht – und wie ich jetzt investiere!
I said that Elon Musk is the person, that is, the only person who made the greatest contribution to the fact that Ukraine was not invaded, then Youtube quickly does not make the channel or the video is running, that's one of those things, so you I can see how weak Europe is, Europe, as it were, turned itself off and then headed for world war. Hello people, welcome to a new video on my channel. My name is Mario Lochner and I'm back today with a very exciting guest. he is one of the best-known economists in the country before he became a manager and best-selling author welcome professor Max
Otte I am very happy to be here very kind of you to welcome you here in the studio we finally spoke to each other again last time was in January 2021, the world was already in a state of turmoil, we already knew about Corona, but a lot has happened in the meantime, so we want to talk about it now, if this is the collapse of the world system.
Come on, if we're already in the middle, we also have to talk about an unpleasant topic, we'll put it off for a bit and then, of course, we want to talk mainly about the stock market and we'll start with The last few days have been much friendlier is, for Of course, the question that a lot of people ask and I have to say, I'm always surprised by this reflex when things are going well that you immediately think, oh, okay, but something's not right. It's not right, but we have to upgrade a bassist or we're almost completely reversed.
Now we have. We still had a little bit of liquidity, so we added a little bit more. There is only a little bit of liquidity left because we may be wrong. You're right, so what I see as a basic argument for at least being there now might not be as massive as us, but you shouldn't miss it now that the reviews are back. Midfield is cheap for a lot of things some not so cheap but actually moderate ratings are really average we've been in a bear market for 13 months now the last two were such a classic pointy fist now we've had erosion for 13 months and more than half of the strongest days, say the S&P 500, were in bear markets, if you're not there you'll miss it, then it'll go up one time, you won't notice it, and it'll go up strongly and then it will stay that way and then it will go maybe a second time then they start thinking about it and then maybe they wait for the correction again and then it goes up and then they lost 20 30 percent so it seems not at all studied that time also it will he registered in one or night in of course the study with the deposit of his investors may not be 100% objective but still those who are completely out in those bear markets who then miss out on a lot now have been attacked. long imbued with the term prophet of shock they have also written many or a few books where the word shock appeared, of course they have already successfully warned against it now many will say that Max
Otte is almost completely invested in this uncertain situation where so many are warning where there are so many risks where your bullishness is coming from suddenly yeah what does bullishness mean so it's more of a sober calculation it's the risk of not being there if it goes too higher or there could be another sell off after all we didn't have a sell off so that we've had a bear market for 13 months and that's also a very clear correction that's what many fear so this big washout wasn't there yet that can happen so we were badly positioned at first but if there was a sell off , then the courses would of course be very cheap, then they should au I'll get back up quickly.
I don't know, I just know that with 10% inflation I just watched your last video, it will stop soon if you follow them, but with this inflation figure, of course, it's not that exciting. to maintain liquidity so you'll find that we found enough again and I'm basically a bullish stock market that one of the analysis of political crises that occurred mostly just indirectly related to my trade as an investor that we were in for example , our oldest pi-global value fund in March It was fully invested in 2008 and then the financial crisis hit and we went down 35% first, that went up 10%, then it went down 35% and then it went up 140% why we fully invested in March 2008 because when I was a stock picker as a value investor in March 2008 I still found enough stocks that were good for me in terms of valuation now I also think inflation has to do with it s Of course I don't know either what is going on, but at least there are some signs in Germany, but not at least in the US.
There is hope. Of course, I am also very interested in your evaluation of the shares you bought last time. So we sourced from Sixt in Munich. What about Sixt? They have almost halved. They are run by entrepreneurs. It is the German medium-sized companies that we have in part, as well as Bechtle and of course Sixt also lost a lot of feathers in the crisis due to Of course there were drops in sales, there was also a loss, but this loss is of course in a grunt, in a crisis of this kind, especially for a mobility company, massively, what just happened is Sixt got through this crisis pretty well because they are one of the best companies in the industry or maybe the best even a big US competitor went bankrupt and Sixt could and can be a good company Usually take action in such crises, even if things go bad for these companies at first, you can expand your market shares, you can expand your business, if the things are going back up it's right up front and that was the case with six now we've increased them at the end last thing we talked about it i already mentioned it in january 2021 then they talked about it yeah it's partly crazy in the bag, what m Many stocks have overheated, they also said it was partial insanity, partial overvaluation, but they also said at the time that there are certainly stocks that are attractive and they thought a run was possible at the time, like many do now, it didn't go so well not right away but in between it can of course be bad what you haven't seen what inflation what actions of central banks so why wasn't there a run yes so if we talked a year ago it would have was excellent the balance sheet was great and we were among the funds that bounced back the best from the corona crash according to the joints in asset management and now in the last year we have taken the markets down in some cases even a bit more which of course it's disgusting but it happened as an investor too, we made mistakes because 10-15 percent of us also invest in young internet platforms, and a market seems to have reached its over now we left relatively late a few months ago some are still out managed in what they do is in house swiss mail order pharmacy is also the parent company of docmorris and that works very well in switzerland the business only in germany the pharmacy he also defends himself and that his recipe does not arrive and that would have been the great catalyst it did not happen for the rose to collapse massively and things like that, but also with the wax of other children it seems to affect the entire sector it was the same with the delivery services Lieferando just eat hello cool delivery Hero all plummeted 60 70 80 percent more in the sector we were not at all in delivery services but only to go up and one We also had two others and of course they cost performance in At that time, Rose was the second largest position, so now they are completely gone, so a turning point can already be seen in such companies, so there is not just a collapse or now but that now is difficult in the long run i can see the end of a trend of course some of these companies will continue to develop well and all of them will continue to develop in some way we are completely out there are For other reasons i myself I've taken full charge of investment decisions across all six of our funds, of course I'll let you help me, but I've been the chief investment officer for as long as I've been around.
The business will continue I will make all the decisions myself and then I also said that we have to focus the portfolios more, meaning less stocks and as an investor who has been around for 40 years I would also like to make things simpler for myself so also having simple investment ideas that are manageable Investments while working with young analysts who sometimes come up with more complicated ideas is ok too they should have them too they can make money on it too but now that I'm doing it I want keep it simple and manageable, okay, then the zur Rose is the spectator team.
JDs hasn't been out for a long time yeah slack has been out with slack for a long time but he also made a lot of money then we sold it at a lot of profit so they cleaned up a long time ago and now two three months ago we have the two three they recently sold an exciting stake of this sector but they may have been forced to do so Specifically Gazprom that would interest me now I think they also have some viewers in the warehouse you can write in the comments if you still have Gazprom shares , maybe you can explain to us briefly what the idea was, well gas prices have come up in the middle so the bigger idea wasn't too bad but it's still hard now what happened and how do you handle it yeah the Basic idea was absolutely correct two years ago, but it doesn't help if some other things don't work.
It doesn't work then because the basic idea two years ago. Years ago, oil and gas were coming. The industry hasn't invested in capacity for 10 years because everyone was already green, no deal, green and sustainable, etc., but we still need oil and gas. we bought it two years ago two and a half years ago in gabsborn and it has totally developed properly too Gazprom is of course not marketable at the moment and is therefore in two Pu Public funds are there but reserved with zero and the fund company has decided that our alternative mutual fund is not tradable or we reserve it at a 30% discount on the stock market price because the stock that is trading in Russia is not much lower than it was when we bought it, we've bought it in the middle was also clearly about umm, but we just can't trade them.
They were listed on the stock exchange in 1998 at that time there were four of them. The tiger states in Asia were the big hits and then I had two Malaysian titles. I can't tell what it was anymore. I don't remember, but ma has here was the great. I wait and then came the Asian financial crisis and then you just have here once the convertibility of securities was exposed and then I sat there on my papers as a guest, it comes back to the basic idea of one of the The basic ideas were that oil and the gas were correct.
The second idea was that the guest room was extremely cheap at the time. 8% dividend four five five P/E then we calculated and even then Nordstream 2 was already controversial we said even if Nord Stream 2 doesn't come it's a good investment the company is so widely positioned that sodium 2 is maybe the cherry on top of the pie but it doesn't affect the basic investment case now and that's true too but the war is another number Gasform has made as much in the last quarter as in all of last year so the company is still booming and going Right now we don't have any of that now we can only hope we have three scenarios Russia and Ukraine agree and trade will eventually resume it doesn't look like it at the moment the second is this Pressure from the West will at some point lead to Putin having to give up and since a lot has changed, trading will also be restored. r and the third scenario that we would then look at in the tube is if it gets stuck and nothing moves then we sat on it for a long time so it said like now but that happens if you have a wallet of course it couldn't happen that a often it's for now now at -34% yield that's had an impact maybe there'll be a giveaway back at some point suddenly it's back up three four percent Oil and gas still seems like their idea if you look top ten here is the new 21.10 largest positions now Chevron Exon so a lot happened there not too long ago so on January 21st the depot looked quite different so they are megapolists in energy just the day before yesterday we won both stocks again which of course doesn't jump long term they have eights P/E around 9s P/E they have a 4% dividend that's fine but of course it all depends on the price of oil so what in principle is relatively easy for these corporations, the price can be the amount extracted, the clip gives sales and the profit directly depends on it, so if the price collapses, then the idea would be bad, then the basic thesis is that oil and commodities are historically pretty cheap and there is more to come and of course i might get an idea when i look at the price of oil at 90 dollars or wherever it is moving which is almost at the previous high once the 150 after of the financial client rum 2005 not rum 2015you've got that for a moment 150 dollars cut but otherwise 100 is actually for the top of the oil price if you then adjust it for inflation it looks completely different again so maybe with shadow statistics inflation real so the previous highs are somewhere around $250 adjusted for inflation that's where we're too far down the green league no deal trend if that creates so quickly we don't need oil anymore i think it's highly questionable it's because that we are indeed bullish but oil and gas of course are not stocks you have forever, you have them as long as there is such a commodity cycle if you look at the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500, it's pretty much historical chen low by one so commodities are historically cheap commodities are historically cheap and something will happen world population is growing very much that of course it may be that we will only put it on the front page if there is another recession now the economic downturn i wanted to ask in the short term perhaps dangerous because the demand for raw materials is of course already declining significantly and maybe if things get really bad it can really crash then actually you would have to wait half a year a year but it's cheap and here too the danger of not being there when things go up is greater for us than the danger of being there and things they go down so it's a bit I'd say it's all or nothing but they're putting a lot of emphasis on the second to last 39% energy and raw materials of course if it works then it cuts nicely otherwise of course it could harm in the short term Actually, let's say it's fairly diversified, on the one hand oil and gas, that's of course the capital leg, but then we also have a company that's active in the uranium sector, the div ersification, and the latest is adego Agro, a company that makes agricultural raw materials and also owns farmland, so we're already somewhat spread out within this segment.
Of course you could also take one of the large general commodity groups Engel American or BAP biliton or Rio Tinte or something, that was also clear we have nothing there now but we are already there yellow cake somewhat scattered Timo ran very exciting I also noted here why of all things uranium of course we know that in Germany there is a problem that the rest of the world is not building nuclear power plants but it is definitely not like in Germany why now Bangladesh is building Pakistan is building Belarus is building Russia is building 25 China is building 33 80 nuclear power plants have been built and demand for Roman is high.
Yellow Cake is not a mining company. Ok, Yellow Cake is actually a hedge fund in the form of a limited company. Only very few employees and they have pretty much mimicked the stock and with the proceeds they bought their locake Yellowcake is the precursor to reactor ready uranium orene dioxide and the manufacturers stock it so basically buy it's a uranium warehouse if they're good they haggle a bit so if the price goes up go down and then buy some more if it goes up sell to producers and camps it's basically a uranium price tracker and so it's a little bit easier to calculate than a mine where many things can always go wrong that what mining business is not that easy and the value is actually relatively easy to calculate they take the amount of uranium multiplied by the market price and therefore have a value of the uranium stored cf caliber that with the market capitalization that we are still at ten percent because the market capitalization is below the value of that and then the price of uranium and the demand have to ue to do the trick but we are also quite down and the direction should actually be up is fine too but why isn't the market looking at it yet?
Because it's no secret that nuclear power plants are being built everywhere now, so you think there's still something that's priced wrong, so to speak, yeah, I mean, maybe one or the other has concerns in the uranium sector, although the EU the Commission has once again classified nuclear power plants as environmentally friendly, that is, France Macron has announced 14 new ones, six of them on the German border to cover Germany's energy needs, as well that if we let it go, that's right, but we still keep leaving the ones we have left at least until April to see I really hope we let them run longer and stop If you think that's realistic, ah, here comes the politics , I want to talk about the Greens and then we'll do that too so we can talk about politics let's stay a minute if you look at the stock market. , now I also have a chart here, so here is good long-term since 2008 of course it is difficult with the crisis, the fund now of course they say again why I should buy Mr.
Otte's fund here now I just need the MSCI Mundo it's cheaper and it starts better in the long term you say People yes then the classic home time comes back so everything is better in reverse yes the recovered MSC had a great run they don't know how it will continue , so MS Servo World was also carried by Big Take, so it's also very American. In hindsight it's clear that it was but looking ahead it's a different thing again maybe the world will change at some point let's look at it now and we're excited they seem very relaxed I would say if you look at all the issues now of course we want talk about politics and the world situation right now, maybe they are not so relaxed anymore, it really is all very difficult to understand. right now but there's a lot of people saying oh this is the toughest market I've ever g
otten around better how tough is that for you because especially when you look back on past crises you said 40 years you've been organizing for a long time. time now You this situation is just a oh not really the world situation is difficult but the market is not difficult when you look at it percent down I was a young intern They let me go to the floor it was very exciting it was fun I hadn't had it yet so much money, then own money, what was on the way and that was short forces, but a lot of emotion was very difficult, in fact, the shares, just after 2000, were down three years, almost three years, and that's one of the longer bear markets. been the way we did it in the last few decades so Bergen Bären in three years like that almost never that was difficult that was difficult and I was already on the road as a financial publicist so I was already on the road publicly in the financial market that it was not an easy time, but also as a stock picker you have to think about this company, what do you have now, what will it be like five years from now, is it still around and so when you look at these again basics, kind of like that manifests itself, but it's emotionally stressful.
Of course one of my analysts now says that that would be a thing for him too so now a year later that's an average bear market so the average bear market has been like 15 months now we're in 13 months so we're in an average bear market we haven't had an average or longer bear market in the last eleven years since the financial crisis so I think most would say and wait a little bit yes yes then it doesn't go down any more at least or maybe it goes up then it wasn't that bad but the problem is of course we don't know so of course it can also go into the winter many fear raging winter or what maybe that's when it gets really bad compared to 2000.
I know it's always really hard to compare something like that, but just the mood, like I said, we don't know now, theoretically, it might as well be three years this time . which is different than then and a lot a lot we had than in 2000 Tech euphoria, on the other hand, was a bit of the panic of the 2K year as to whether what was going on with computers Because the time change is because of these missing tomatoes , yes, the technological euphoria that didn't break out then, yes, the air slowly died down for three years and that was very bloody, then it was definitely depressing, but also we had in In 2000 there was a real stock market bubble, the Graham P/ E was at 45 and today it's still not cheap at 30 to 28, but the background to the Grand P/E would also have to be explained because this 28 is historically still pretty high, about the level before the stock market crash of 1929, but the economy also changed there because we had a lot of new companies, we had very strong sector changes in the market if they had Amazon Microsoft and so on, now they could have The P/E ratios, for l or that Microsoft 26 Alphabet, early 20s and stuff like that, they're not like that at all, it's high if you look at their Graham P/E, that's very high, the average P/E of the last 10 years it's exactly me let's take the last ten years, Benjamin Graham, the inventor of value investing, just said that we do this as a measure for sustainable winners because it goes up and down again.
There are stock market cycles, but they don't exist like this anymore. these tech companies have just grown and these relatively high profits are most likely sustainable, of course they can also decline a bit, but these companies have conquered a much larger place in our economy, they have displaced others, for that the actions are still there? Some of the high-weighted indices have very high Graham P/E ratios, well above current P/E ratios, but the gains they make are sustainable, which means Graham P/E ratios are somewhat misleading. from our point of view. of view meaning these 28 aren't cheap and probably oversubscribed too but the stock market is clearly cheaper than it was in 2000 which was the e we're not in the sell-out yet haven't had it for another side inflation is picking up how long will it take but in the year 2000 we were in the middle of the great moderation that lasts somewhat from 82 to 2022, 40 years of low inflation, great moderation, maybe it will briefly explain again what used to be said that there are business cycles and also interest rate cycles and, in fact, we have had low and falling inflation and interest rates for 40 years that had something to do with globalization with the opening of markets with technology that also makes it cheaper a lot, which has simplified many processes and it was like that in 2000 now some things are different the markets are not as expensive as in 2000 the interest rate policy is in the end, we probably have os the interest rate change inflation has exploded ketchup inflation so some things are different and that's why we have a completely different situation from 2000 and i still agree with Ak. it depends of course on your risk profile but it should be an integral part of the portfolio because alternative term deposit also bond markets seems very difficult to me so bonds are not an option for you either you are constantly in the news that is written. that now of course there is another alternative but for them not yet not yet real interest rates are still negative ok but if things were to continue like this at some point they would think so too if ok then I think that there really has to be a chance as with everything The risk has to be right, the return has to be right.
You can also do it online. You just talked about the big Microsoft Alphabet and Co labels. Of course, they are super ranked and priced too. power, of course some monopolies, but now they have also disappointed, for example, interestingly we are on YouTube at the moment, sales are also there decreased a bit at least it has disappointed expectations a bit Microsoft has also disappointed that already shows that maybe something is starting to go wrong keyword recession because clearly Alphabet is also reliant on Weber resolution so maybe some have already picked up or maybe it's a little It's a little tricky that they can't spend as much money anymore.
What awaits us. There can definitely be corrections, but it's just that if they take Alphabet, they have P/E ratios in the early 20's. of course you can pick them up even cheaper, we already have them, we're on it now, so we have to call it off, of course, that can only happen if I think about it, like these companies in ours We are all integrated into our living environment. We all search through Google. We all watch a little YouTube sometimes. I'm sorry to note that with the younger generation hardly reading anymore it's all moving pictures but of course these are growing leads of excellence so these titles will stay with us as legitimate investments for the next ten years so It is certainly something that is only at the core of a private investor's portfolio.
Stability increases if that can happen now.anything is 20 30 percent goes down much better if someone still has liquidity then you can add more and how you see economic development now so there's already a lot of indication that we're at this trade-off So high inflation has to be brought down from some way or to put it simply we'll ruin the economy what's ahead many feared reporting season was going to be a bit rough well the text already shows things are looking up but in general the big catastrophe is cooling down we don't see it yet maybe it will only start next year so how severe will the recession be for the economy as a whole is of course a brutal restructuring towards the state economy if you think about whether the gas price cap isn't a price cap it's a bill hedge prices are what they are so you subsidized the bill of certain bill recipients by doing left pocket calculations, but that's just one of these manipulations.
The aid package 3, the war economy, which Manager magazine had in May on the cover with the word war economy so we're also emotional in a certain way on the war economy so there's a lot of upheaval there's going to be a lot of upheaval we're trying to immunize ourselves a bit by saying we're taking titles that aren't affected or might even benefit from it we're not doing armor but energy for example should be fine unless we're having a slump then there will also be a short return there, but there will be a lot to come, in particular, a lot is coming to the German economy, which is why we have almost no DAX. companies exactly about Germany, we want to talk about Germany in a moment, I still have Dollar Rama chosen, maybe it's a consideration just because the inf The relationship, of course, already affects a lot of people, maybe it was then, it will affect, later the following will happen, it diverges, so people really have to buy the really cheap stuff because otherwise they can't afford it anymore and on the other hand, luxury maybe. booming even more because the super rich yes i mean they laugh at 10% inflation but now when in doubt they wont hold back and then maybe invest in valuable stuff too they would think well before cash is now less and less and minus the few millions I have laying around then maybe I'd rather buy a few millions not quite rich yet, yes, but then you might as well consider whether you shouldn't just buy some nice things before they become less and less valuable, In fact, we have all three of them in consumption, of course, or classics, and an unknown company, that is, classics, they are Nestlé with 20 P/U 3% Divi since it is a pioneer in globalization, as I said, so now I completely assumed the funds again a few months ago we used to do it by consensus or we had divided areas of responsibility so I said I do I just said I also take the investment side very simple fits Nestle is a classic pioneer in globalization n for 100 years in China and in India and Brazil that's one thing, of course, you know that, so we LVMH have, as you said, luxury and we don't see this polarization of society stopping in this crisis, it's actually happening Super rich and I've had this trend for 15 years.
I criticize the one that is already working in World System Crash. I have two chapters on the vanishing middle class, but I don't see that strenuous effort. they are being done anywhere to stop this trend so one luxury is still an investment theme and the other is then wi Really cheap stores so we're actually on both sides and dollarama is kind of like Tedi in Germany . Tedi can't be bought on the stock exchange which belongs to Tengelmann and therefore the Haub family doesn't want to put it on the stock exchange so unfortunately we can't opt out but we could participate with dollarama the leader of the The market in Canada, which is also strong in Brazil, now you just mentioned that you're fully involved again, fully involved in stock picking, you've adapted the king's analysis as well, I think.
There will also be a book out soon about you starting stock analysis in 2023, what are you doing differently or better or maybe you said what you do in principle and what you have optimized now? yes in principle of course it's the same framework that we look at in business model management and balance sheet we've reviewed the simplified criteria again because I said I want simpler decisions ja ben well we limit the possibilities of the alternatives so if we used to have maybe five points on the scale now we have three points so no average yeah or that's how you can say it before maybe you had five tones we said prefer clear decisions simple decisions is there are more than ten criteria in total , then something comes together, but the individual criteria are refined to be even simpler, which are, for example, two or three criteria, then you have to list ten, yes, with the business model it is, for example, the market position or also sales performance so depending on sales performance you can already gauge how attractive the business is so to speak then we have equity on the balance sheet but ta We also have the aggregate net liquidity or the net liquidity is another interesting thing and if you go back to the business models 40 points of management 30 points and balance and Capital management 30 Pu We already gave a higher weight to the management of nkte in the last revision because it is already true that they can now hit the wall relatively quickly in companies.
Buffett once said that you should buy a company that can also be run by idiots so you can rest easy. maybe that used to be the case, but nowadays the world is so fast that even a big company can be run relatively fast in pinch by idiotic management, that's why we gave management a higher weighting in the last review and we have it on the balance sheet now we add the increase in capital management for example the issue of share buybacks the company buys back shares when prices go up which is stupid but some companies do it because they want to prop up employee stock options the company you buy back shares with is cheap and of course a smart thing so Ka pitalmanagement how are things going with investments?
Are the funds invested well spent? do they add value? We have done enough. We have included the buffet test, that is, how much value is it? everything will also be in the book he explains transparently as i should actually get this as i am very busy so it took a few more months we are excited about it and of course also his performance i think ya we've provided a lot of inspiration exciting stocks since we yellowcake maybe not everyone has had it on their toes now we want to slowly get to the big picture which is maybe a little nastier than the stock market they already had I think three years ago it that the world of books System crash written with him entertaining back then exactly when the book came out fresh I gla ube that was exactly three years ago or something like September 19 and shortly after that we talked exactly and now the question is that I will ask you directly that is perhaps the feeling of many people what happened now so yes it is crashing now World yes exactly what I wrote happened gave covid unfortunately i didn't foresee which bothers me if you also had a hard time with timing something like this would happen at some point ok but yeah you're good we don't want to go to the doctor in the background then YouTube makes the channel fast or is the video running that is one of those things, but the covid was also foreseeable to the extent that it was already there with SARS and that is how I come from the world system, from political science, also from the long cycles that Ray Dalia has now examined in World Order in the In principle, the book is the ideal empirical supplement to the world of system failure, although I think mine is better written, so I threw in a lot of daily graphs and data, which is also fine, is very, very valuable, a model of explanation. it's a bit thinner and in principle both are books that have pretty much the same line of reasoning that we only have cycles in the world system when the central powers take turns that was only 100 years ago when england slowly but surely the supremacy of England is the biggest and then Germany USA Japan came in as a challenger and then we had a very difficult and unstable time and now we have this big trend in China USA where there are very big changes and I also wrote two chapters right at the beginning from the book about and that to me is still the mainstream so it almost does justice to which system, they are all side effects of this hidden power struggle.
US Chin to the ukraine war which is kind of in the offing or can also be categorized in this field and we are having very very big upheavals in the world this is the collapse of the world system and now we will slowly come out of the debt many are already saying the world is over in debt some of my colleagues have been saying it's been true for 15 years yes it went on and on because the rules were changed then you have the institutional ones you can only take certain loans and this is how this debt went further, the balance sheets of the central bank are exploding, everything is happening only then, we are also at the end point of this development, so now everything is fundamentally cleaning up, okay, then the world collapses right now, so to speak. um, that's of course a steep thesis, but we're seeing a lot right now in the turmoil right now, of course, we can't just write people off with the w I'd like to unravel a little bit of what's going on right now, too they created scenarios at the time, well, this duel between the USA and China has been simmering for a long time because under Trump, the question now is what is happening.
Now, the role of Russia was not so clear to them at the time. Now, the question is maybe a little clearer, so what's in store for us now, what's going to happen next, because I think a lot of people would probably worry if they hear that now as well, well, I mean, these are times strangers. The three scenarios he addresses are on page 398 of the book. The world system collapses once a new cold war with a western bloc dominated by the US and a Chinese which was scenario 1 the most likely scenario two major wars not entirely unlikely says probable or what is a major war involved with superpowers anyway, so until world war, aren't we sorry to say? in is not entirely absurd and the fact that you have described probability as a means is of course unpleasant and the cold war was most likely for me and the third was a large-scale stable order, that is, Europe as a separate region that finds its way, then, a western hemisphere, a Chinese heavy Chinese blog.
I already said at the time that this was the scenario of my dreams, but the probability is very low and now, with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, we see that this western bloc is building American supremacy. increasingly clear, policy for europe is often made in washington and goes so far that, for example, at the outbreak of the war in ukraine, germany canceled a project of french planes and these planes are now bought in the united states for expensive money , for you to see how weak Europe is, that Europe is being virtually wiped out, that Europe is becoming more and more not just a get rich where many outside influences are often determined in a lot of politics outside of Europe, that's a very unpleasant development but that's not heteronomy because it always sounds a bit like our politicians are a bit like a conspiracy after their mother is there when there's like the puppets that are playing that's more of a conscious decision it's like Whether you say it's a weakness or it's a conscious decision, it's not manipulation in that sense and then it will come to the fact that you are of course also dependent on protection. of the Americans in a certain way, so if we were to fight the Americans now, we'd probably be in a really bad position or I don't even know, which is why I always hoped Germany would do that to France. because I am not so comfortable with foreign nuclear weapons on German soil Of course, for an American, the United States is more important than Germany, we have also seen it with certain oil pipelines in the Baltic Sea, so my wish would be that Europe can manage it itself, but that of course is a long way from this desire, but as I said, the strength of the lawsuit is so great, which is why I now also believe that I am politically independent.
I have spoken to many experts, including Robert Halver, many of who say yes, Europe just has to move on, so we still have the intellectual potential, but we are doing everything we can to ensure that things go in the other direction. , also with our economy, our decisions here are affecting the middle class, so it looks bleak for Europe, whatWhich doesn't mean you can't sit in Europe and invest in stocks, but with big European corporations I'd be careful, especially Germans, to talk specifically about Germany right now, you also have American citizenship, be open about what you're still doing here in the US Everything is going better or US paranoia there that it's not just Trump so trump has basically that was so the catalyst where these divisions then broke down or where they became clearly evident but this division it was there before there were week-long races under Obama without a stop in Ferguson in the south with fires with looting and so on then there is the opioid epidemic the brutal yes before many people die the United States is a country where one or the only industrialized country where life expectancy is falling again significantly because of these drug epidemics, so the United States is, of course, quite before nice if you have a lot of money you can retire but that's one thing still First of all the family and kids are here and then I realize I'm European and socialized by German culture whatever you call it, i know american culture very well i can live there anytime i could live there too i work and practice my trade as an investor but i come from european culture i even wrote a book about it last year part 1 of my memoirs my memories of youth I'm writing about what shaped me you also wrote something very good here I'll just read it but that was really good for me I liked I was called Germany's most successful shock guru of all time Kassandra from Worms explainer of crisis renowned crisis economists very I found it very interesting all these preachers the stock market professor goes even further I found it very interesting it also continues very well now and s the question Of course it's always hard to make predictions but what do you see now what's coming up especially in this competition between the US their mania but I taught international politics or learned and then also taught and am influenced by the so called realist school the realist school is a cynical view of international politics that power politics is happening that the secret services sometimes do bad things that the army is used that the army is used that war also happens it is not an ethical requirement so it is not a requirement how to start behaving like this is on the other hand, but because a sober look shows that the war is still going on and the larger and more powerful the states are, the faster they are also ready to wage war, right on the front lines of the US, which of course, fought by far the most wars of the last 30 years further and what do I see?
I see this struggle, this conflict between these blocks that is taking place on many levels, the new Silk Road depends on Chinese investments in South America or in Africa or the Chinese are massively pure, I see that superpowers and states must be included united very paranoid id and absolutely want to assert their position so i started studying at princeton in the fall of 1989 for my PhD program, when japan was still at the top, americans were incredibly afraid that japan would overtake them, for what the americans have is a huge problem is if they go anywhere they are not number one and there was no war either so that took care of itself.
Japan is of course slightly larger than Germany and in terms of area it is two and a half times larger. so big in terms of population not twice as big of course it's not China that Of course it also has the potential to become a serious rival in general but as with Japan this shows just how over the top reaction was American and China has long been seen as a threat and would also not want to live in a world dominated by China with surveillance with totalitarian features an acquaintance of the highly respected journalist from the 1930s Yes You lived in Germany for a long time An acquaintance of mine returned to China from China a few years ago and says he can't deliver any reports from China right now, at least not for my posts.
The second cultural revolution is currently underway and that would put you in danger So there's a lot going on and we long noses, as the Chinese call us, we just can't see through this huge empire, huge things can happen there so don't see through it either. because I think that in general it is very difficult for us, I think it is also for them Spectators, for me too, of course, you talk to experts who then explain to you in broad strokes when you ask what the past had for the crushing, the circumcision of the crisis, whatever then it's a dictatorship i don't think we're there either or we don't have to have long dictatorial traits or it would be an authoritarian dictatorship or a totalitarian dictatorship if a dictator is good maybe even a dictator but it's just because it has no end of life dictator charismatic is because of the party that Hochland has in that sense he is comparable to Putin for what he had a long way through the party or through public office or posts or jobs whatever he is not now is not a crazy Hitler, who in At first as a rhetorician and as a tribune of the people, in a certain way he hyperflamed himself, but that the reins are tightening very tightly, that is that he has authoritarian traits, massive authoritarian traits.
Actually, that's certainly, I don't see it, but I have a major consequence of this if we now assume that the world system collapse scenario 1 new Cold War bloc formation might even get with a proxy that might even classify the war of Ukraine as a US-China proxy war, which now has a little more arguments, but draws cases of yes, but the Atlantic Council even called it that, is coming. not from me but if we have this bloc formation then our consequence is to do what you understand do what you can calculate to do where you are relatively sure that we no longer have Chinese stocks yes I think it is also a technically important investment issue in this moment now worked yes things are going down again it has been bad for a long time it has to be said that china has done bad for a long time so for 10 years it is at least good now some stocks were ok and they were dancing and alibaba is no more meanwhile the market is bad too so many say its actually just an idle number for example i think i have been saying for years its the biggest bubble in history economic, I don't know that now, but it's reflected in the stock prices, so not a lot happened and there are also explanations that China is of course way ahead when it comes to patents, for example example, but then it will happen.
The party just clearly stipulates that the patents have to be there so you have to invest there of course China is crazy economic development but whether that's going to make it to the stock market is another matter it's these ghost towns there are also one thing, but still this The infrastructure is also developing, in many areas they have long been surpassed. That's one thing, so there's already extreme dynamism. The stock market is another I think it's correct I argued here in the West 15 years ago or ten years ago that doesn't seem to be happening yet so as an investor it will come to us at some point right now I don't see it because these are the oligarchs here, Bill Gates or a Jeff Bezos or even an Elon Musk who are kind of modern oligarch entrepreneurs who have n Of course your company develops it yourself, you did a lot of entrepreneurial work there, but you already have the influence of very powerful players in the market, it is like that and, of course, they did a lobby and I wrote a lot about it seven.
Eight years ago and I was in the SPD and others who also had the issue on their screens Restraining the power of internet companies was also a big issue in the Democrats in the US in 2015 I co-wrote the anthology published by Frank Schirrmacher technological totalitarianism Sigmar Gabriel was there Matthias Döpfner juli Zeh Sascha Lobo those people Martin Schulz so how did we manage to restrict Google and Amazon and Facebook seven years ago nothing happened on the contrary these corporations are more powerful than ever and I don't see I don't see what that it is urgently necessary that we reduce their power and because they are so powerful, one more politician, because of course they intervene very strongly in the formation of opinion through aggregated algorithms, things are hidden in the area of social networks, so this group has a very active influence, I want to paraphrase it so miserably and of course it has a gigantic influence, so there is no need for me to talk about it.
So now very briefly on the subject of China, two important things, first of all, all the money that flowed last, where does it go from your point of view? There are theories that would make sense to you. so the first impulse is probably one says it's ok in the US or maybe other trading markets they've already heard something there or maybe sometimes that's not the case then foreign investments are manageable but for of course it's a bit and basically if we're now in this world system shock situation but you like people So the old system, the order that was born in 1944/45 with Betten Woods and then with the institutions that were created after World War II with the USA in supremacy when this order dissolves and something new emerges, for example this bipolar world which is a time of uncertainty and that is when money really flows in the direction of the safest investments and safer so little to europe rather than the usa so brazil as a market somehow has a 6er 7er P/E ratio russia has a four times P/E ratio okay that's clear somewhere but at the moment s like this, the money goes to the safe havens now, maybe just to sum up what awaits us in the bottom line. so we have this bloc formation so Russia, China, now they're more or less permanently transformed or it's more of a community of convenience, I mean Putin, he also has to be careful not to swallow a clear side, but due to the fact that this strong confrontation is there, Russia must safely orient itself in the direction of China.
My example of Germany's overconfidence was in the Bundestag resolution when it came to supplying weapons to Ukraine, and this draft resolution is relatively long, then it says us in two or three passages. We will be watching very closely how China is behaving, I think the Bundestag thinks it is a bit high if it is also hiding a warning to China, so to speak, in relation to arms deliveries to Ukraine, especially since we are certainly more dependent on China. that China of us that is also against it is Russia still a child's birthday is a misnomer but we depend a lot on China that is also a trap that many people are talking about now we have the issue with the port where now actually everything the world or at least all of germany said maybe you shouldn't make secret services n warned then we are on our way to repeat this russian mistake again but stop now factor 10 with china no i think it's right because no one talks From the heavy reliance on the US, Blackrock is the largest shareholder in almost all Dax companies I was allowed to watch their documentaries on Blackrock three times on four occasions, where the power of this company was being discussed and the European or German governor is now the head of the CDU, so that's just one example of how extremist the US is. powerful in Germany and for an Olaf Scholz there really is nothing left but to allow the influence of the other side somewhere, so that everything doesn't depend on one side, we cut our power supply through Russia and then we buy in Qatar where the rights Humans the situation is safe it is at least as bad as in Russia we buy the gas so that is the idea d What is now being promoted with the port, actually, why can't a rich country like Germany pay for its infrastructure?
We haven't finished the expansion yet, but if we're already open in both directions, they're also against the nation, but that's wrong. Word against the sanction that is yes a discussion that probably doesn't make sense anymore anyway, so if Putin would continue to deliver gas, that is also highly questionable, so it is often presented according to the slogan, even if we reduced the sanctions now , everything would be fine again. , so that's yeah, probably a very confusing situation that can't be reversed overnight, a lot has happened, but how do you feel about it? I think so, in this deal also wheat deliveries, so there is a lot of wheat in Ukraine or grain in Ukraine and a deal was made that it can be exported through the Black Sea, but the second part of the deal was not fulfilled by the West because that meant that we also deliver again or that fertilizer is allowed to be exported from Russia again and that's still blocked that's why everything stops Ru ssland is looking for ways to start talking business again I think that would be done by that reason, it is very sober, but that is speculation in principle, of course, I am inagainst this sanction, I always have been and if we are talking about changing through trade. so the approach through trade is bad to limit everything these sanctions are also built asymmetrically the main costs are borne by Germany in Austria because we actually stop trade in certain groups of goods in many groups of goods the americans have made trade be smarter but they continue to sanction individual russian people so sanctions are related to people otherwise it annoys them to continue their business so now they also said about oil now we are going to cut there too , but otherwise, many things are happening, but between the USA and Russia that is lying or paradoxical or more perverse about this situation, that is all it is partly absurd and there the sanctions hurt us I think these are facts, but now , of course, there are many voices that say that if we don't stop Putin now, then simply, then he will continue, how do you see?
That's not bridges at all, it's brutal, it's a war of aggression it's of course an illegal war, but Putin is a realist, so like I said, he was a KGB man, he came up through the apparatus like shishing, ping, realistic, of course, now he's been president for a long time, so maybe you'll leave. a little but in general he said years ago when it came to the power of Russian influence and the people of the secret services we don't have the power like the CIA like the Americans we are 120 or 140 million the Americans are 350 million so our devices are a lot smaller russian bib is lower than german so i think it was easier with ukrainian he certainly appreciates himself and miscalculates but my reading would be and elon muskatja similarly tweeted he didn't get enough headwind for that also not properly on the cap, but i also tweeted something i said.
Elon Musk is as individual person as most. contributed to the fact that Ukraine was not invaded that it does not have silensky and not the head of the Ukrainian army and Elon Musk was the person who was also an individual, yes because even before the invasion, the secret services knew that maybe something was in the mount, in at least they feared that even before the invasion started blocking the terminals together, immediately when it started there were 5000 blocked terminals in Ukraine where the maskattas provided for free to this day and only with this date Ukraine could be in front fast internet and accurate internet really got that for these jeff linz and anti tank missiles they fended off russian tanks very effectively they also dug up several russian command posts killed many overall so they were attacks precision and without Elon Musk, Ukraine would have been invaded.
I also tweeted and of course I had a headwind. but it's a stuck situation I'm the one or I'd say Putin can be his of course now he's staked everything on this card he can't fully go back but I think if he came to a compromise where he could save face to stockings. then everything would end, so it is completely illusory and also a tear of honor not to assume that Putin is going against NATO, as long as I mean that he recognizes Russia's capabilities, Moscow has fallen, the losses in Russia are brutal , so that's the problem because we. say well face warming solution for Pu Now the question is if there can be a face to face solution, or if someone says yes, okay, he has to go and then maybe you can talk to Russia again, not to play in their hands again saying ok yea good face was a solution i know what you mean by that but isn't that too cheap?
Iraq has to go that's why they plunged the country into chaos I think a total of almost a million deaths in which we have developed a hotbed of terrorism there so it's very conceited when we say we have to get involved we want to have governments gone somewhere place that is not really for us, at least according to the classic interpretation of international relations, but, of course, it can be clearly positioned because that is, of course, a problem that cannot be done now or undone more on the invasion issue what many are only afraid of is the Taiwan issue is how realistic is that so it's on the agenda that's not a big secret it's supposed to happen at some point no one knows if it's coming and especially the question is of course, when yes, but of course it is discussed again and again and who for the stock market, of course, also the topic of chip manufacturers and Co certainly difficult and for the whole eco world economy, of course, then it moved towards world war, I mean it will also be there, we Americans have already taken a position on it, at least verbally, yes, the Americans are turning their backs on entrenched doctrine, so that nothing is discovered and Kissinger with the opening of China, which was not a cushion under the government in the early 70s, he was also right, from my point of view, at that time you were in this world and yes, you still wanted to build a counterweight now that China is so big, but the idea was us. having a two systems country that was also negotiated by the Americans with the Chinese as a compromise there is no recognition of Taiwan there is no ambassador and so on we have no diplomatic relationship with Taiwan you leave Taiwan alone and we have the language rules which is one country is china which was a complicated solution so to speak but a viable solution between the two regions now both sides are putting a lot of effort and i would even say the americans are adding more fuel to the fire here than the chinese but skisingping please Of course you also say you want to make progress there and that's very dangerous and on the other hand you have to wonder what the US fleet is doing in the South China Sea, by which you mean the South China Sea, by which it's political world wide it's a complex issue but it's very dangerous there so it probably won't go out of the headlines so quickly now but again w said the conse The consequences for us of all these things are ultimately the investment consequences we have this extreme turmoil in the world we have the dangers it means we stick to predominantly western hemisphere investment so we just saw the political risks with Gazprom which are actually in bombs The investment would have been and would have been and so on, of course, in retrospect it is always something like this: restriction to one's own political sphere and restrictions on relatively simple ideas companies that also have a good chance of getting ahead in this situation and I always cling to John Maynard Cains who managed the Kings College fund between 1927 and 1945 they weren't very easy years either, because 460% made me want to while the English stock market ran parallel or sideways plus minus zero and you can earn money even in moments like this and the consequence of this, if we now read this B Conflicts, wars and less and less s growth have less globalization, so the bottom line is probably everyone will lose, or there may be some winner, so apart from individual companies of course, yes exactly, there are situations as well. like these individual companies that grow at the expense of others, but the world will become one for the time being.
A little stricter than I said in 2006 in Crash is Coming, that globalization will eventually go backwards, which has always been the case. That was of course a very daring thesis at that time, because at that time globalization was more or less a natural law, it is not like that and although you look at history and Radelio has also confirmed it or written in his book, take the Renaissance. , that was a relatively global era with an exchange of elites and then there is the Reformation, where there is a direct reflection in the region itself and that is what we have now. also globally bloc formation western china something in between which will probably be the reality now we want to talk about inflation and co very exciting if i have you guys here today there are a lot of topics i hope it won't be too long now we if i wanted we could talk about inflation just before, maybe the issue of the financial crisis, so we have already experienced that too, are you worried about that now?
We have seen the tensions in Britain, now we are having this. interest rate shock, we've got this strong dollar, which is also weighing on a lot of things, so that's a danger that's maybe even underestimated right now because we've got these distractions that overshadow everything like Russia and co and the Ukraine, yes, the financial markets can freeze, but actually I think we will continue, then we will go towards the state economy, we might even get allocations or loans. So I was already a bit in the crisis like that or something like that. froze the economy somehow or we had quarantine we had supply chain restrictions we had all of that but we got through it pretty well because we just gave out massive subsidies daniel recommends that too so i went along and said we actually know the german economy for a year completely subsidizing with that just the sales are subsidized so that one can get away with it afterwards it can continue to be produced which means that with the state economic measures one will somehow overcome one then you have to look very closely at the individual companies that for shareholders it still makes sense where it's best to keep your hands off but if they crash now, the financial markets of course must have massive state intervention and we've already practiced the states we've been undefining over and over again for the last 15 years for there to be even more state instruments The economy will come as in 2008.
That is not feared now, because one would intervene much earlier, it would intervene much stronger, of course, that is no longer the market, that is the state, but we see that the state is doing a lot in many areas at the moment Recently I read an interesting thesis by Russell Napier, who said that central banks are actually completely powerless because of course they can raise interest rates, but as you just described, there comes an explosive package or checks like that in the US. .they'll be like the big guys or the central bank will take money out but they'll start putting it back so central banks are powerless and as a result inflation isn't really going down yeah russell maybe he's an interesting thinker and he's also a manager manager and analyst and also had them to give a lecture a few years back. ch quite intensely in return they actually have to write and talk to each other again thank you really exactly yes then remember one or the other is still in the note that he had a thesis in his lecture at the time which was a bit skeptical at the time no because i had wanted it otherwise we have a relatively high proportion of corporate threads at volkswagen so one thing is wages and salaries and the other is corporate income or in our profits so profits and he says of course it only works if I have legislation and regulations that are very favorable to business.
At the time, he was of the opinion that at some point democracy would go back to the board, then we would have more redistribution, then workers and the working population would have a big piece of the pie again, and then things would change, until now nothing has changed maybe that will happen now in the crisis, we will see how it goes So now we have that inflation, we have already talked about it before in my video, of course it is only a thesis, there were ten reasons that are clear, of course, that it is not a guarantee and of course it is also questionable. how far inflation will drop in the US at least there are indications Yes some of the fat is also really gasoline, interest rates will probably continue to rise for the time being and we just don't have some issues like partial chip shortages anymore which is declining in Korea, chips are sometimes already piling up. they went up, which meanwhile were scarce.
Commodity prices are also coming back. Energy prices too, so like I said, Germany is there. I always think you can say it's a rare exception. We will probably have even more problems. 10% is of course really a word, it's the highest inflation rate we've had since the Federal Republic was created, it may well drop, but I can't imagine going back quickly before crises and then you'll have seven per hundred or five percent, it was also in the 70s, so then it went back again because the next push came with the whole percentage. eat if we get this bloc formation process then some supply chains will continue to reorient there will be more shocks to the political system so i still hope we get more inflationary bouts here and there like with fever whether that ends the increases of ten again I don't know it's already a gigantic shock but now there are sustainable inflation rates like at the time of the great moderation of two three four percent I don't think that's realistic at first so like I said, again to clarify , then my thesis is thatit is, but as I said, it will not be less than, of course, they will change.
We also have a lot of structural drivers, and that's also green inflation or demographics and so on. And so on, yes, and as you describe so well, supply chains have changed. Of course also a bit relaxed, but the question is of course what comes next, especially since China does, since we're still code zero and it's so hard to get our debts down, it might be something that gets them up and running very OK, so inflation is one way to reduce debt, there are many others, but inflation is of course highly anti-social and that's also been talked to you about occasionally.
Hans Werner Sinn always emphasizes that and it's too underemphasized, for what Hans -Werner Sinn is really someone who thinks independently and who emphasizes that the country that the economy the people means a lot to who also thinks independently and who emphasizes that inflation is antisocial must be emphasized again and again because hits the low income is almost all or a large part or they spend all their income when food prices, rents and energy prices rise, then it's the right thing to do harm to people who earn a lot it's not that bad and even then you probably won't fight this inflation massively at first but you will tolerate it now you have quoted Elon Musk who sometimes even fears the deflation, rather there is no danger that the fat pushes the economy against the wall that we actually end up falling into recession and maybe even deflation because people just can't buy anything anymore offset through economic policy, the runaway through public spending and money just massively borrowing, maybe also writing off old debts, so states really step in massively, many of my colleagues still think too much about the market economy, I think we are in a paradigm shift or the state is really more involved in the economy again chehen intervenes in the face of deflation everyone is afraid of 33 consequences or 29 consequences you just have that in head, even though it's almost 100 years, you still don't care, I guess you're making every effort, not even in the nature of a market economy to avoid getting in for free which doesn't mean anything can't come too it can happen so i mean basically i said before after the financial crisis that the world is in a tight spot between inflation and deflation so it can be like a hiker on a mountain range it can slide in both directions now we've been pretty much involved in kenya politics since kovit now we are in war economy in what we feel with manager magazine cover war economy that means states are increasingly empowered to really intervene in the business cycle that is what we are in situation then Friedrich August von Hajek the way to Knechtschaft said that one intervention leads to the next and you can already see that we are in al Somewhere on the road to, I'd like to say, a more state-dominated system in the West as well, gold shouldn't really have to go through the roof clearly higher interest rates stronger dollar, but that's actually a environment where gold would already be in demand or we have gold of course we also have it in client portfolios we say it's a mainstay so it's hedging or it's a bit uncorrelated asset whenever that happen so that's the other question last year was it good for gold this year it's ok I then figured out how does the current gold price adjust for inflation if it just adjusts for inflation then somehow we're only 20 25 percent below the 1980 high that wouldn't be very cheap, of course, because the 1980 high was an absolute bubble, but if they still pull those statistical tricks, list this mid-'80s run at two, two and a half percent , then we are only a third of previous highs so there is still room for improvement from there we would always recommend gold as an uncorrelated feed just have a little patience eventually it will just happen like this Inflation is so much the same ketchup but it's hard to share of course it's lost a bit of its luster it's still the number one crisis kit but because our transactions are becoming more and more transparent, more and more on the internet, more and more digitally, that's more. and more monitored it must be said what was already called surveillance capitalism as super work, gold is no longer as fungible and too anonymous as before, you can still do a lot with it, but it has lost a bit, but basically I voted positive for the gold, now they have it.
I read in 2015 that he was concerned about peace in Europe, and they said that it is like who. in 1919, where did you notice your former employer in 2015? Yeah exactly my focus exactly or online focus than seven years ago so back then you were lucky yeah ok maybe a bit over the top anyway now I've changed a few things get bigger now do you really You're worried that the war could spread and then the question is can you really leave your money in Europe, so I'm not talking about investing in Europe now, but maybe you should take some precautionary measures.
I would advise anyone who can afford to do something in Liechtenstein and Switzerland is just not in the European Union these are low indebted states liechtenstein has zero national debt very strong banks Liechtenstein is a small country and therefore a bit below the screen of the radar also has a running industry so it's not just like that A financial oasis and there's Hilti and Vivo of course medtech all kinds of industrial companies so it's a small middle class country they say Switzerland too it's possible there of course so I would advise anyone who can afford It's getting something out of the EU now, we don't want to give you the big tips here but how do you do it?
So you can ask a lot of people, can I do it now? Can we go to Switzerland tomorrow and then you could open it, probably not that easy or so how do you set it up? That is why normal citizens, in principle, if they have time, they can go there, they have to document, they have to comment on the origin. of the money, the banks of Switzerland and Liechtenstein are now also very closely behind it, that there is no black money, you have to do that So you can't drive there in cash for the suitcase and say I want to pay for it now it must be very documented precision, but otherwise, of course, one could open an account, but in Liechtenstein with our partner banks, you can even do it online, so it works exactly, that's good, so in the suitcase we've made it clear, not everyone says for the
otter and they talked about it absolutely and that's what we want to be too and yet it's a good idea according to the law not to leave everything in Germany but they said you could even do it online , that's exciting too, maybe an exciting topic, maybe you can do it too, make a separate video on that if you're interested in that, write in the comments and give a thumbs up, I also hope Mr.
Otte will e see you again in the future, if you like the conversation, the question would be briefly about Germany. I would like to talk to you now that unfortunately you have not become federal president, now we are. ns before you became chancellor, what would you do now? What would be important from your point of view? policies of my coalition partner like that, i.e. the energy transition is not that strong and even we Greens have to back down now in view of the war we cannot live with this energy distribution Germany has many limitations I would be critical of these sanctions policy you can see the SPD gets it for that too it's also enough beatings so there are quite a few calling for a strong peace policy towards Russia so Stegner etc is there more of the left of the SPD who ask for it? first of all I would like to say that as federal president you find yourself in a very, very difficult situation, one has pressure from all sides, I even have a dissertation at the time about the change in German foreign policy after the reunification or was there any or in what direction did it change that was one of the topics of this politico-economic dissertation so it is not so easy to do something different energy policy different sanctions policy differently you should ease the burden on small and medium sized companies that many talk about, but nothing happens, so there are so many small steps that need to be addressed, steering the Bundeswehr more towards the defense mission, making it capable of being defended again, after all, it really was ruined by Ursula von der Leyen you can't do it any other way say I know on Insider so there's a lot but like I said the chances of influence for a federal chancellor are po r very limited course despite his political competence he has to pay attention to his coalition partners and so on now I also like to criticize the Greens and I think that is also d absolutely justified, but now you just have to say, to be fair , or your old love, if I may call him, that the CDU, the Union, has already screwed up so much or for so long, the Greens have not been in office so they have to or now stoplights. in general, they have to remove a lot or what Mrs.
Merkel and company have screwed up. I see it in the younger generation, the green ideas, which I cannot share at all. We have to go deeper into them, but of course they are very powerful, that is the spirit of the times and Mrs. Merkel has embraced these ideas, so Merkel with the energy transition X-rays were also there with a pioneer in 2011, of course, in principle we have already done an eco- black politics is preparing a black green coalition now we have a traffic light but this green world of ideas is very powerful and has profoundly influenced the other parties now that they are no longer in the CDU you see that the party is on the wrong path now you were a conservative voice union of values and what if how you see the development and above all why if why you can no longer have an adjustment that perhaps made sense because many see the CDU for I simply leave it the wrong way, that is the question, so when I evaluated it, it was mine between now and they identified me as a politician, I am not, I was a volunteer, I directed the association for eight months, that was not easy. cil there was also work and management skills were required, but it worked at the time, it was pretty good, then I had the candidacy for the office of the federal version and now I'm out, so I volunteered for eight months for eight months in the political side together with my main job that Was it now that I am a solo investor and I am an entrepreneur, but he was not only president of the securities union when he was president, so he did not hear anything in the CDU about us? rteunion wanted to know Elmar Brok was before my time Alexander Mitch was still president he called the values union made of crab plates so ineffable language I mean if you always look at his resume Brokk was a lobbyist in Brussels for 30 years and then a committed association of members of the CDUDescribing the bourgeois as cancer-proof is already a difficult job, that means that the CDU did not really want to know anything about this collective, we were the legitimate unwanted child, so to speak, and they tried as much as possible. so as not to deal with us, I will now briefly touch on the elephants in the room, of course I also had some ideas beforehand because of course we are mainly talking about investing here, but this list of federal presidents in relation to the AFD, so to talk about an AFD candidate, it is also important that you say that he is not a supporter you are not an afd politician but you have allowed yourself to run or if that is the correct term they also gave you a good beating I don't I don't want to do that for much of the video now because basically it's not like that for me now it's important and we wanted to talk about other things but I find it then it's also good to address it just to anticipate comments that later may think it's more than noticed and if unfortunately there is one, I'll I look at it critically, I say it openly, and I also wonder what the point was that you could know that in five years. , then, of course, I knew in the first place that I am not, although that is what the media always says, I am not a candidate for the AFD, but a candidate for the position, but nominated by it, and that is not in the Basic.
The law either party nominates the candidates, but the Federal Assembly or the members of the Federal Assembly nominate the candidates, so in practice that is when the parties present their candidates, but that was not provided for in the law. Basic Law. The Basic Law intended for him to be elected. in a free and secret vote of the Federal Assembly the requirements for the position must be illiterate and be 40 years old what it says in the Basic Law must be old, then it must be kept deliberately civilized that the parties have also assumed this processin actual state practice that's the way it is, that's why it was said to be a candidate for the AFD and so on, but in reality it's a derailment of the Basic Law Idea and the real question should be whether you're qualified for the position, what kind of ideas bring that, that's the question, the real one, but they knew anyway, in the end, they knew they were going to love it, so it was.
I was not surprised. That was even more than I thought. I have come across a practice with this candidacy and I have raised something that had to be raised it was then until I will return to the reasons until the case to speak The return that I would have had fewer votes than the party that nominated me that is not correct the AFD has 151 voters and voters but 133 were only in the assembly few didn't get in because of corvitest and so on and I had 141 votes I got seven from other parties that's a fact so it was reported incorrectly it's also wrong because Wikipedia talks about refunding the case .
I got quite a bit about it, but I thought it was important to say that this total exclusion should not be and I found it shameful that my party, the CDU, the largest opposition party, failed to field a counter candidate and I said I wish there was a bourgeois alternative to Frank-Walter Steinmeier, I understand that too, I think it's good that you emphasized that and I also want to be on this channel, of course I don't want everyone to go to W, let the place come, I say it very clearly, I think that there are also some people in the AFD that I would never interview, I would never want on this channel and I also want to clearly distance myself from them, despite the connection, that is why I also went to speak to them correctly because I appreciate them very much and because I also i appreciate this approach in principle they said if others go totalitarian they will remain democrats which i think is basically good but the problem is mornings and course are gone because dic Yes, uh, I'm quoting people, I clearly see totalitarian echoes, so the AFD is not the solution either, or that's it, there are many people and tendencies that are dangerous, or what is the solution, the AFD, the CDU, the SPD, the So the FDP has the issue of plurality, of course there are people and tendencies you don't want, although quite a few have been expelled, that's not right there were some exclusion procedures and, if people say so, Meuthen also built his own business model to exclude others so I looked behind the scenes a little bit and again this outing of the packages was actually my candidacy with a trigger because I don't want to get too deep into politics now especially with Mr.
Meuthen there are levels and I don't want to say more about it all good so I think we've created a nice connecting element here today Video and like I said it's very very important to me not to let all voices and opinions express their opinion. I think today was a perfect example and a very very exciting interview Mr
Otte thank you very much yes thank you and I hope you liked it and give it a thumbs up and I think we have a few things to discuss and comment delivered thank you for looking thank you very much all the best we are out now ciao