Militärexperte über hohe russische Verluste in der Ukraine | ZDFheute live
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live today only in the last three days in at least three cities, the Ukrainian army, according to their own statements, Russian troops and technology hit, hundreds of Russian soldiers are said to have been killed,
Ukraine claims that only one of the attacks that the Russian Defense Ministry itself confirms and speaks of 63 dead, only 63 dead, and yet this admission is interesting because Moscow very rarely comments on its own losses. It all happened on New Year's Eve after a Ukrainian rocket attack. the soldiers were in the city of Markiska in the Russian-occupied territory killed in eastern
Ukraine and today our question in the
live broadcast how massive are these Russian losses of the last few days really how long can Putin continue to wage war and at end You may just have an armistice that we want to talk and discuss as usual, you are welcome to join us Leave a comment directly on the stream or ask questions and of course also by mail and first we want to talk to the
military expert Colonel bye Wolfgang Richter good evening Mr.
Richter good evening at the beginning of the program I also saw the pictures of the destruction I heard that there is again how the information about the losses is always very different your assessment now at the beginning how high the losses really are when you hear two different numbers yes first of all you have to say that both parties of course also do pro paganda in war which means their own losses are loath to be known as they are then calculated down and the other losses are increased accordingly but I think it's clear here that you can also see it from the reactions on the scene of the russian bloggers that the losses in markiska must have been considerable, it may not be around 400, you should also always distinguish between kriegsverl But not all of them want to say that they died, you have to count 25-30% of them as dead , the others are then wounded and of course we also hear about casualties in the area and then there are already considerable losses for the Hundreds of Russian armies go, however
Ukraine is not announcing what losses they have suffered themselves.
All in all, it can add up, so again we have to assume, at least according to secret service reports, that we now have about 100,000 casualties on both sides, a good 25-30% of them fell and these are already severe losses in both sides, however, we have seen a movement in Russia that intends to lead to an increase in the armed forces to compensate for these losses, firstly since a few months ago the partial mobilization of some 300,000 soldiers and secondly the which applies from now on from January an increase of rus asian armed forces from around one million to 1.5 million men, that is to say, plus 137,000 is the exact number and that means that if these personnel numbers arrive to the front so I think as you can now estimate that both sides will now be politically elected in the beginning of 2023 and we are also motivated to show this war the money in Russia just for the leadership but just we can guess what the morale of the troops looks like, of course, it is more difficult for the Russian moderator of the Russian troops to shoot for a successful brother and then ask what we are really doing here as for
Ukraine, whose morale has now proven to be very high and that they also know what they are fighting for, that is, for the sovereignty and independence of the country, the second question that you have to ask yourself here is how many resources are also material in material terms are actually available and how much personnel could both parties to mobilize as a whole and all these questions for all the answers to these questions indicate that unfortunately we cannot wait for a quick end to the war now, or at least that it is not foreseeable, but that both sides are obviously chosen and possibly also capable of fighting this war but going on for quite some time, we'll go into more detail right away and ask you more questions, but briefly with our reporter in the
Ukraine with Tim Krüger because it has definitely been a very accurate one in the last three days in the
Ukraine Hit was successful with definitely also some Russian losses how could
Ukraine be so successful as a team that they could really attack in three places at the same time , so the Ukrainian
military leadership doesn't give any official price of course they keep a very low profile on these things just of course she doesn't want her strategy her tactics her options b known but is there some information how she could have been possible in this case, it is mainly the Kremlar
military bloggers who obviously have information there and one theory is that the multiple use of mobile phones within the troops assembled there on New Year's Eve apparently led to a signal that the armed forces Ukrainian forces were able to capture and that they were able to locate and then attack this very place where the Russian troops.
If that were the case, of course that would be a pretty fatal
military mistake and we are hearing now also that the criticism of the Russian war is for Russia, so this criticism is getting louder and could get louder again, we just heard it, the ukrainian general state announced another attack today, an attack on a place in the Rason region of you also in the new year It is said that rstag happened there only of 500 dead and wounded, which is a very high number that, of course we cannot verify at all, but if this number is even roughly confirmed, then it really would have been a new day with many losses for the Russians.
Armed Forces and one can easily imagine that such attacks against Russian troops in the occupied areas of
Ukraine are fatal, especially in terms of morale, and of course there were also successful attacks in the last few days, so Russian attacks, we also have Las pictures can take a quick look at it. A Russian rocket attack has just hit a city in the region. Now the ice hockey stadium of the largest ice hockey and figure skating school in
Ukraine should be visible here, so there is also a lot of it. The destruction that we see again is of course harder than the losses on the Ukrainian side, which are then not revealed, for example.
You are thinking, but what else do you know about this attack or the successful attacks by Russia in the last few days? Tim, in regards to the number of victims, the number that has increased since yesterday morning or that we have been hearing since yesterday. tomorrow it is three people which is also a part that of course we cannot verify at all and this of course sounds much less than what we hear from the Russian side but we do not know at all what is happening at the front, for For example, how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed there in the last 24 hours, that's hard to say, but what apparently calmed down a bit last night were at least these drone strikes.
There was a massive wave with dozens of attacks in the first two days after the New Year, many of these drones were intercepted but then these parts fell and they definitely have damage and if you see ukrainian president lenski you can believe that if these attacks are repeated now , the Ukrainian government is releasing information that there will be more waves and if this information is confirmed, the next few days and weeks will also be restless here in
Ukraine. Thanks for the
live evaluation from the
Ukraine Tim Krüger and we mentioned it at the beginning of the program.
I already mentioned 63 victims on the Russian side, Russia itself admitted this to Moscow, but even some people in Russia find it hard to believe that there is more and more criticism. recently from russian war reporters and also online and we look at a report from anton huddle only rubble remains of russian
military accommodation in region now 63 soldiers killed in attack says moscow kyiv talks 400 dead attack sparked criticism of russian leadership Igor Gilkin, the former commander of Russian troops in
Ukraine, made it clear on Telegram that this is not the only extremely dense deployment of personnel and materiel in a location inside. from the range of American Thomas missiles and yes, this is not the first. incident there were many of them last year but our generals are basically not able to learn their criticism is said to have been limited today family and friends mourn the soldiers killed in Samara Russia so now there are more and more critical voices Mr Judge Obers ade Wolfgang Richter spoke again about how much damage something like this does to the Russian war, if there is criticism now, actually, we have been hearing internal criticism of the Russian war for some time, so far the criticism has been mainly focused on the
military. leadership is amazing d that political leadership is not yet under criticism or what one dare not do but one thing in a Georgia that is not yet a blank slate remembers the year 2014 but was right when one is within reach the Rockets house recruits a very strong group of about a battalion concentrated in a building or in a building and it is a serious mistake in war, especially under the threat of long-range rockets, you have to slack off or you have to have adequate protection.
That is why in the Russian blockade scene, but also among politicians, in the meantime, criticism of the
military leadership has been expressed and I have not done enough in terms of protection, more structures should be built that are also concreted, it is say, hardened, etc. to bring that to the fore Gerken is also right on another point, it is not the first time this has happened It happens and I wonder why one is not able to learn here, that one is still focused instead of relaxing and that one still allows to reveal their own positions via mobile phone, so to speak, because it is of course today with modern electronics with electronic reconnaissance provided data from mobile phones and also to determine the location of the and then immediately react with artillery and long distance.
Ukraine are masters at this by the way and the Russians should have realized by now this has happened again in the new day it's unbelievable I think overall it's about you wanting to boost the morale of your own troops , that you want to damage the morale of your opponent again and the fact that you do it on Thursday is of course, it is also symbolic, heralds a new year in which you want to signal that we are ready and can continue to inflict significant losses, which
Ukraine, of course, it hasn't. agen is the very neglect they have suffered in the meantime the russians are of course continuing the war they are making practical advances at bonn-bass and it seems to have come from both sides in the tactical advances which were smaller but no more than two three miles deeper.
So that's not a strategic change, but it does show the will to carry out this war and we have to assume, as we mentioned earlier, that unfortunately there's no short end in sight and we have questions about that in the stream. Daniel silver on YouTube writes that now is not the time to send tanks so that
Ukraine can end this so that
Ukraine this war I always answer questions immediately if I see that it is correct I believe in the assumption that the war can end leading to out a battle tanks is not entirely realistic is
Ukraine has already received hint I remind you that after the The Russians are still the most armored army in Europe, certainly l or they were on February 24 of last year when the war started, they had four times as many combatants on their active duty and about 1000 on the course, many of which have certainly been reactivated. , but there were also de
liveries of tanks from Eastern European countries of the same type that the Ukrainian army drives, so the losses have also been largely offset.
I think the most important thing for
Ukraine at the moment is air defense because these strategic airstrikes with Marshmallow Women drones and rockets damage, of course, above all the energy and electricity supply of
Ukraine and that is of enormous importance not only because the lights will go out or it will be cold in the cities, but mostly because the armament production in
Ukraine, which is very strong, will suffer as a result of not having more energy and also the Logi stik that we have to go from west to east during a long distance is interrupted because the Ukrainian railways are electrified by water and these are all
military aspects that must also be taken into account because in this question that means that on the other side we see we see Russian resources that are far from exhausted we have thousands of products from combat in depots, they're not modern, they're not the vast majority, but they're available in bulk if they're then sensibly rebuilt, which I think which is at least in part assume the russians will bring a lot of battle tanks into battle that means it won't be the safe way to end the war quickly and reconquest won't be as easy as they imagine they always have to. see both sides and you should also see how differently the resources in Russia are designed, especially at the domestic level they are still available in the deposits, while
Ukraine, the morereceive weapons from Western states, the more it will depend on logistics because everything has to be supplied you need spare parts, you have to de
liver ammunition and now we have identified the bottlenecks what we have in the West with war production and with the supply of munitions in particular, that means the shift to war production is far from complete and at this point I even dare to doubt if that will happen anytime soon and these are deep cuts in the private sector of the armaments industry if now you just say double triple the amount of munitions you can de
liver or produce then states need to give guarantees that in the years to come it will be so easy that industry alone of course won't do it yes this is all in the concrete question Demand them because the West is providing enough weapons and ammunition to allow
Ukraine to win, yes, so the only question is how to understand e yourself, so if one also differs in the choice of political words, there is a very clear difference between saying that
Ukraine must not lose it must maintain independence or we want to achieve a victory that then also includes Crimea, so it means a reconquest, so to speak, of what has been lost from 2014 to 2022 and what he loses even then or at least can no longer be asked for
militarily and politically Minsk Agreement is more about Don what he cared about and less about Crimea , that would mean a new dimension of the war or if it is about leading the Russian army to ruin, which has already been said, so you have to differentiate very well what that word actually means go and I think that should not be passed overlooked the fact that there is of course also the danger of expansion or escalation of the war pointed out that the resource situation is far from exhausted, unfortunately it has not yet been possible to isolate Russia worldwide in terms of sanctions western sanctions much of the global south is really calling itself a-state in Turkey did not participate meaning the sanctions regime is also löchrek at this point so we shouldn't be too euphoric of course there are risks on both sides, that must be said clearly, even the Russians will not be able to mobilize so much without further ado that there is so much unrest in the families that are becoming more and more involved in this war and if this unrest reaches the political elites it can also be squeezed to always so these huge ones exist on both sides we have to make analytical distinctions ourselves and it shouldn't be frivolous and fast they only talk about it if you come back 30 40 I would also like to read the feedback from our community Frank Lange writes Armistice on Facebook while Madara writes the first step on Youtube I hope everyone in Germany understands that
Ukraine in these damned times has the right to defend r her country and forever and ever. g and one last question followed by a question from Askan Grunewald via email: how did some experts come to the conclusion that
Ukraine is interested in a ceasefire that would mean victory for Russia?
After all, your main goal since 2014 has been the incorporation of the Johanns regions and now and the Grimms, what is your assessment? So how do some experts come to the conclusion that
Ukraine might be interested in a ceasefire? So the Ukrainian government had shown interest at least by the end of March. negotiations between the Ukrainian and the Russian The Ukrainian and Russian delegations and President Zelenskiy himself announced the preliminary result of the negotiations. He said, firstly, that
Ukraine will not come close, secondly, the question of the political status of Crimea will be postponed for 15 years and then the status will be finally determined, which means that yes a plain text a recognition of control of de facto not of the child so not legally but a de facto control of the cream and that was also the case in the last eight years before the start of the war by the Russians thirdly negotiating a special status for the dornbas between the two presidents and the slightly different mint deal reminds me a bit so you could take that and ensure security for
Ukraine but just outside of NATO and other humanitarian prisoner exchange etc. so all of these things had matured a long time ago and then got squashed for different reasons, the question is just that there was a more realistic approach to a ceasefire, and when you talk about a ceasefire, you always have to wonder under what conditions, of course,
Ukraine has the right to defense, and of course it is clear that on the western side we are falling. support it being a free, sovereign and independent
Ukraine there will be on the other side and then also the additional risks and losses we just talked about the losses of a war and the question will always have to be asked at some point how far to push that and where are the lines of engagement we can go back to reasonable lines of engagement from the end of March but that also means that both sides in this case, even
Ukraine, would have to win back the cream from top positions and then abstain while the Russians naturally pursue imperial ambitions like that The addition of four new oblasts must also be dispensed with, so the thing about diplomacy is that in a seemingly hopeless situation like now, where the position doesn't match up at all, you can open a door somewhere, which then leads to more trust and maybe another curve will arise as a result, for example the OTA member question N edship discussed again, that's probably my conceptual message, but that idea will only come when the death toll continues to rise, that's not good news at the beginning of the year, but when he's able to suffer so much that he has to move. and of course she can expect that to be the case but she can't foresee it now and whoever thinks so today could give certain dates when the war will end and under what conditions I think it's a crystal ball look and that's speculation in which I do not want to participate.
There are a lot of questions in our stream, of course this war has so many facets, and of course there are also a lot of ideas and questions here, how could it end and when? i would like to pick up some of them here now and although Couch cancels Studio on Youtube Mr Richter the
Ukraine has enough Troops for a war of attrition the Russians could reverse the war with more men alone you could certainly look at it that way in terms of numbers , I mean,
Ukraine had about 44 million people before the start of the war, but a whole number of people came under Russian control, that was true of course, I have to say already by 2014 and since the beginning Since the war we have seen a flight movement of 7 to 8 million people, so one has the impression that the
Ukraine no longer has the population it had before, possibly at this moment it is below 30 million.
In addition to the fact that there had already been a great wave of mobilization in the
Ukraine, we must assume that up to a million women and men are now doing armed service in a wide variety of institutions, not all of them in the army, many in territorial expansion or auxiliary services of all kinds and the question is to what extent can that be exploited fen in Russia, the number of personnel is normally much higher, but there seems to be a big difference in
Ukraine, the majority of the population think that one has to defend oneself and they are willing to make at least big sacrifices that is quite amazing and also admirable in Russia of course things look a bit different there are many more people available who could be mobilized we will try but the more the war reaches families in Russia, the more unsettled it could become which could also domestically for Putin, but we already had that discriminatoryly said at the beginning that there are risks associated with this for Putin and that hasn't been fulfilled until now, I think it's more the risks and this feeling of losses that must first reach the Russian elites before anything changes politically here, so , as I said, Russia's staying power is numerically Morally higher is the sign of
Ukraine Risi ken a comment from there black on Youtube wondering why the US doesn't just threaten domestic missiles with a range of 200 miles if the Russians don't stop terrorizing civilian infrastructure with the drones and missiles, so here's a question about an escalation. level yes, we have now heard very clearly from Western political leaders, I am counting both presidents in particular, but of course also our Federal Chancellor Scholz or President Macron of France, that an escalation must be avoided at all costs, but that the escalation will be prevented, so there is a determination that NATO countries will not participate in the war themselves, so it is a uniform statement and secondly, when the missiles were de
livered, the missiles also made it clear that initially only the shortest range is taken, namely the about 70 to 80 km and not the long distances Rocket that goes up to 380 km and secondly has itself I promise that even the shortest range will not be used for firing across Russian borders, we can certainly do it in a gray area here, but the sentiment that you want to avoid escalation is also strongly developed in the American leadership , of course, in the German and that's why I don't think at the moment that you do that, we must not forget that we are dealing with one with the possibility of several levels of escalation one is a horizontal expansion the other is also a vertical expansion of this theater of war which could be very small.
I want to say here that we are dealing with the largest of the second largest nuclear powers in the world with Russia and a nuclear power may also withdraw here and there, but it will not capitulate and then go further into the declining Russia speculation is a The so-on-the-wall scenario that no one in the West wants a politically crumbling nuclear power is the worst possible scenario for global stability and all of these are good reasons to THINK thrice before using long-range weapons to allow
Ukraine completely destroy the Russian forces if they were able to do that, I don't think a few rockets would do it either, but you are being careful here and that will again be the reason why this reluctance was widespread, and that of course applies as well. applies to Germany, France and other Western European countries: there are experts who are of the opinion that if there is no more room for either side, then it could prod ue something like a ceasefire, what do you think of that?
Yes, as I said before, if the psychological tension on both sides increases so much or one of them tells it that we can no longer take responsibility for this, then this is where the moral ethical conditions come into play or the criteria have been played out, we can no longer taking responsibility for making more sacrifices to ensure success, we've got to draw a line somewhere and if we don't make any
military progress either, then of course that's probably exactly the signal you unfortunately need. from the battlefield is no longer possible forward now it is more sensible to call a truce rather than just drive casualties into costly but very intense trench warfare like a horse so to speak that may be the case that doesn't have to be the case case, but that may be the case and maybe it can even be assumed that even after the next big offensives, which will no doubt follow now at the end of winter or earlier, then a situation like this can happen, but such a thing cannot be shortlist accurately because people and decision makers are working everywhere and political dynamics are unfolding, it is difficult to foresee the operational message at this time Early in the year, all parties are ready to carry out this war, that they have the resources for Russia to create the area, however, for national needs, while
Ukraine depends on the West to gradually de
liver more and more m bits and pieces and political responsibility is shifting more and more to the West and in these conditions we have to see how war can be limited first, how conditions can be achieved that are also reasonably acceptable, I am afraid that neither side will be able to do without pain losses because then everyone has to come down from their maximum position.
A question about these losses, if that could affect the future, is the question asked by the user Hayabusa Film on YouTube. Can Russia be forced to the negotiating table because of the high losses, I think if they are only connected with the condition that it is internal unrest, so if the pressure of the people reaches the political elites in Russia, then that may be the case, but one must not forget the other side either 200,000 dealing with losses of which about 25 to 30% . Also, what we haven't said yet is that there will be about 40,000 civilian casualties. It can also be estimated that there are about 10,000 deaths.
The UN is assuming slightly lower numbers, but I don't think they have fully registered. , so the suffering will increase, that's right, no one can predict at the time when theThe kettle will be so full that it will burst and people will say enough is enough, we need a ceasefire, but we must assume that
Ukraine will defend its sovereignty. , which means that there is a will to fight and morale will probably last longer and be tougher than with Russian soldiers, who actually always have to ask themselves the question: in which area am I here, what am I doing here, why am I I'm killing my brothers it's a sister nation that still applies before and makes it all make sense what i think about it and that seems to happen quite differently in russia in russian A aside from elite drops that means that most wars don't end through negotiations, so why should it be any different here? well, wars end either through complete victory of one side or the other or through a state of exhaustion in a permanent war without negotiation, which of course is a frozen conflict, but as a rule wars end, yes, if we deduce from the two great world wars or from the previous colonial wars, which of course are always in favor, as a rule, wars are also ended with negotiation, historically everything has been there and that is also conceivable here, then you would have a question from the wolkeninsel community on Youtube, he or she asks that there may be a war that will last another five to ten years. anyone expects it to end soon, so I don't think one is capable of fighting a war of 5-10 years of intensity. persevere, which is observable now, then it's going to be more of a frozen conflict, which is the middle scenario I just mentioned, ending up wearing itself out and holding some main lines of contact for a while, but even that would have to be staged, it has to then there is always an attempt to prevent further escalation and I suspect that even such a temporary status requires some regulation and we have already seen that, for example, the Minsk Agreement, how can that work, even if it was not satisfactory in the end, but the medium I also think that such a scenario is conceivable, I hope, of course, also a scenario that brings about a ceasefire under reasonable and negotiated conditions says Colonel General Wolfgang Richter thank you very much for being our guest today thank you very much Mrs.
Young, have a good night, thank you and, of course, also have a good night for you. ke you were there for your questions for your comments I tried to be able to take as many of them with us as possible the subject of course will always come back here first of course and we will be attentive to you and then
live again until then nice evening and thanks