UKRAINE-KRIEG: "Macht aus militärischer Sicht wenig Sinn für Russland diesen Konflikt fortzusetzen
Many topics that we have to discuss lit from Zurich the
military economist Markus Kolb I greet you very cordially hello to Berlin greetings let's start for days so Russia has been trying to weave a narrative after
Ukraine wants to finish an alleged dirty bomb or shortly before it is for that the
military experts have doubted that from the beginning this story fits well with the usual russian procedure one accuses the other of what oneself is planning so we have just seen the pictures here what the russians have improvised that one can do that really just describing it as amateurish is also very indicative that this was spread through the Russian Foreign Ministry and all over the social channels that not only shows some
military desperation that the Russians have because they obviously have this scare campaign that they then try nothing more to drive, but it also shows you that it is the usual preparation for an operation flag down, which means you are trying to visit
Ukraine, but you also have to see that Russia has already received warnings this morning, for example from the Indian Foreign Minister that if possible, no nuclear weapons or nucleotides should be used in this conflict so there are voices clearly advising Russia not to do this US defense to use here so I think it's another propaganda move I'm aiming mostly against the best and less against the
Ukraine but i will ask a thousand times how bad it is because that is done when these posted pictures actually show a smoke detector from slovenia. photos from 12 years ago if true So that is absolutely amateurish, the Russians want to win parts of a war here, so from the Russian point of view it has to be like this, if you see it like that, what is behind it?
How can you go public like that? who see that stop from a western perspective from the perspective of an authoritarian regime, no matter how well the propaganda is done, the regime determines the truth and people have to believe it too, and especially if they are amateurish, then there is a certain cynicism because it is behind it, it does not matter if it is true or not, it matters that this truth is disseminated by official organizations. silo wiki of yes, to which putin also belongs, it does not matter who is in possession of the truth, it depends on who prescribes it how to interpret the truth, that is a perspective that we are not used to in the West and we just laugh at it , but this campaign, of course, is also directed inward, so it is also broadcast to the population on Russian state television and that's after another 20 state television is so indoctrinated that they are probably now indifferent to such things, they see another incredible who doesn't want to laugh about it because of course the situation is too serious for that, we look at
Ukraine, which according to their own statements, now has parts. of your army stationed in the north or increased near Belarus, how do you rate the probability or danger of a Russian attack from there at this time? de berlus would then be using their local armed forces to perhaps distract themselves.
At least that's what the Russian fantasy is about to go on the offensive with. To be honest, I think that Lukashenker, the dictator of Belarus, is a little too smart for such actions, because if you look at the age and state of maintenance of the material of Belarusians, then such an attempt would be too suicidal, it would be the downfall of his regime but of course the threat still works so from a
military point of view you can't just ignore it because theoretically it might be possible so you have to station at least certain defense troops there and I think that's the idea to force the Russians to tie up forces in the North and Northeast so that these forces are lacking in other parts of the front, but this does not necessarily correspond to
military reality, those who are shrinking and increasingly without logistics and without fuel are the Russians, not
Ukraine, I would consider that quite unlikely. d actually they only assess deceptive maneuvers Russia now warns against shooting down American satellites or they say we could do it because they provide the Ukrainian
military with important data, especially for reconnaissance and that is how a new area of conflict can arise out of this war.
I do not think the same about the Ukrainian territory, so I would like to refer again and again to article 51 of the UN map, which gives every state in the world the right to help a state that is being attacked in violation of the international law, such as
Ukraine, with all kinds of deliveries of weapons and Weapons, of course, also includes weapons in the information space, which means that information or tactical information on the conduct of battles or the movement of the enemy is also available , so I would say that's certainly not a justified claim under international law, you have to say that Russia is technically so at least one believes that they are capable of shooting down satellites in space, and that was done by Western analysts as far as I am concerned. i remember in 2017 or 18 with an old russian satellite so you don't have it like you usually do systematically from orbit to marine accident but it basically shoots it down They ron with a laser and let it crash as planned, which at the time was understood as a provocation, it was probably more of a tech demo, but if the Russians were stupid enough to do it. with American satellites, they will most likely have a counter-reaction, especially if they are stupid enough to do this with
military reconnaissance satellites, so I would say, first of all propaganda, first of all the usual loud noises , but if you really do, I can imagine there would be a determined reaction to the US pull and yo gla ube that's the least Russia can afford right now, so let's take a look again at current events in
Ukraine, shall we? where can the Russians continue to make a profit from your point of view and you are a
military economist, how many soldiers does Russia have in the fall?
Winter is coming. and there are obviously big personnel problems, so they can't make a profit. The only Russian offensive that we briefly saw in your photos took place to the south and southeast of the city of Bachmut in recent weeks, but these are fewer than the regular Russian troops. it is mainly about the Pregorian mercenary army, Wagner's troop attacking, but all the advances that Wagner's troops are making have been intercepted by the Ukrainians since September and this is the only situation on the entire front where Russia still has any local initiative on all other fronts russia is now on the defensive we just saw the kaison photos where the rest of the troops that are still west of the snapper are digging in right now which means they are not taking any active action but they can't do anything either and
Ukraine is just doing what we are doing. doing with the burning tank train right now i have seen both in donbass and in the restaurant that they are taking out russian logistics as they have done during the course of the war which means that in the end there will be troops that basically have no supplies without fuel and then slowly eliminated or against the Nepper or nibro will be pressed if he asks how many are left.
Most Western analysts now assume that the original invasion force that went in in February has been largely incapacitated, so if we assume a halfway realistic figure of 60,000 killed in action, then you can do the arithmetic about three times per wun in action and it's no longer logistically efficient soon we'll be maybe 180,000 and that corresponds almost exactly to all the troop that went in in February which of course also explains why Russia is mobilizing you just have to think now not all the staff is the same as the people who Now that you have entered you have no training at all, or maybe one day they shot something into the rifle, you do not have any equipment or you have to buy it yourself. it means that the operational value of this replacement unit is close to zero and that gives you an idea of what is going to happen this winter, especially if this troop does not have a winter uniform, from a
military point of view it makes little sense for Russia to introduce this conflict at all, in my opinion, but we are not dealing here with actors who act absolutely
militarily rationally and the consequences of this action will then have to be attributed to yourself very interesting analysis I would like to thank the
military economist Markus Keup and greetings, many thanks to Zurich, have a nice evening