Will Scotland break away?
what it means to be scottish in the 21st century is an open question in 2014
scotland held an independence referendum it did so with the explicit support of the british government which issued a section 30 order delegating provisional authority to the scottish parliament to hold such a referendum, the scottish government At the time he described the vote as a once-in-a-generation opportunity around 4.2 million Scots representing 85 per cent of
Scotland's population cast their ballots rejecting independence by 55 to 45
Scotland's future seemed decided in the union would remain however the world has changed since brexit and both scottish and english nationalists feel reinvigorated now that lawmakers in edinburgh are pushing for a new referendum on independence a date has been set for october 2023 but many legal, economic and political problems remain unresolved However, the le Scottish legislators feel safe enough to move on, is this how Britain ends?
This is how
breaks apart and redefines what it means to be Scottish. Today's video is sponsored by Ground News, a comparative news platform I use to get a full perspective on topics like Scottish independence. you have been following the caspian report for a while you know i am a supporter of the app and the website i recommend you check it out as a resource on ground.news caspian let me give you a brief summary of
scotland's new mandate for a The independent referendum was shared far and wide No less than 120 articles Most of the sources were from the UK and US With the distribution skewed slightly to the left, media algorithms now tend to push the polarizing content to generate clicks and most people are unknowingly trapped in their respective information bubbles but interestingly the Canadian media is also closely following the Scottish process.
The Alberta region of Canada has some Scotla and separatist tendencies. The future of nd is likely to shape regional politics in those places. The tools that Ground News offers allow me to easily see how the Scottish issue is being framed by the media, giving me a more nuanced perspective on things. Ground News relies on its subscribers to stay informed. on issues from around the world go to caspian ground.news and subscribe for unlimited access for less than a dollar a month and support a small team of non-media people working to make news more transparent about the fact that
scotland and england are part of the same state is remarkable considering their history for centuries
scotland existed as a thorn in england's rear england possessed a geopolitical imperative to unify the island of great britain and to that end conquered wales in the 13th century but a A combination of internal political differences including English civil wars and Scottish geography prevented England from forcibly dominating
Scotland in fact from the 13th to the 16th century h each Scottish and French ruler faithfully renewed what became known as the old alliance that aligned scottish interests with those of france england's deadly enemy at that time three times in the 14th century fr ance financed the raising of scottish armies to invade england while in the 16th century french intervention saved
scotland from the depredations of the english monarch henry viii, ultimately england never succeeded in conquering
Scotland agreed to join the New United Kingdom in 1707, not because of the geopolitical advantage its southern neighbor possessed, but because of its own economic incompetence. in the late 17th century
scotland undertook a plan to establish a new colony on the isthmus of panama in the gulf of darien it was an ambitious project and the isthmus of panama turned out to be one of the most important strategic areas in the world, but in the late 1600,
Scotland, let alone human civilization, did not possess the necessary technology. logy to conquer such a ferocious nature the abject failure of the Darien adventure sent the Scottish lowlands into financial ruin as between a quarter and a half of Scottish national wealth was compromised and lost in this single full-fledged colonial initiative.
Darien was not the only reason for the Acts of Union which declared that from 1707 and forever
Scotland and England should be united into one kingdom, yet there can be no doubt that for
Scotland the union with England was an act of expediency. economically many Scots loathed the idea even at the time with violent riots and mobs marking the run up to unification; However, the Scottish leadership decided that union was in their best interest and economic priorities moved rapidly until 2016, the UK held a national referendum this time to decide whether the country should remain in the union, and it was expected that the union would prevail. but instead 52 of british voters chose to leave there was only one small problem the uk constituent states disagreed unanimously on this critical issue england and wales both with a 53 per cent majority voted to leave the european union while northern ireland with a majority of 56 voted to stay in
scotland pro-european sentiment was even stronger to remarkable 62 per cent of scots voted to stay against 38 opted out this created two problems for the future of the united kingdom the first was that it undermined the democratic legitimacy of the united kingdom the destinies of
scotland and northern ireland e were being decided against their popular
will even more serious however was that the economic logic of the united kingdom was no longer a foregone conclusion for more than three centuries
scotland benefited enormously from its union with england in a sense
scotland entered into a union with england at precisely the right time within 50 years of the acts of industrial union The revolution began in England, whose geographical position and access to coal and other critical resources gave it an early advantage within a century of the acts of union France underwent a massive political revolution and witnessed the rise of Napoleon whose eventual defeat left Britain unopposed in Europe for generations.
Scotland went from being a backwater of an isolated island to a critical component of arguably the most powerful empire ever. world had ever seen by virtue of its relationship to England.
Scotland was on the winning side of both world wars, and although Edinburgh traded independence from it for wealth and power for most of the settlement,
Scotland had no reason to doubt that it was benefiting. of union despite its occasional shortcomings now, three centuries later, the benefits of acts of union are not as apparent as in the past this is not to discount the immense economic value the uk accounts for almost two thirds of scottish trade a The London School of Economic Study has concluded that independence would cost
Scotland between 6.3 percent and 8.7 percent of its long-term per capita income and be two to three times worse for the economy than Brexit. there are also deeply thorny questions to be resolved, such as how much of the British national debt
Scotland would take on and whether
Scotland would remain in a currency union and keep the pound and what percentage of North Sea oil and gas wealth
Scotland could expect enjoy by all metrics, independence would be disastrous for the Scottish economy, especially in the short term, even the most zealous Scottish nationalists admit n the same after having said that brexit is also a disaster for the scottish economy, an economy whose impacts are only being felt now and over which
scotland has no control;
In addition, the Scottish government recently published a paper comparing the UK with its neighbors in Europe, namely Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, and found that for almost all UK metrics have underperformed relative to their European peers, either GDP per capita income at equality Poverty rates Social mobility Worker productivity Gross research and development spending and more UK performs worse or almost worse Scottish leaders can and are arguing that in the long term the short term pains of independence are worth not only the pride of national self-determination, but it is also a better economic bet if the argument is sound only history can tell but the point is that
Scotland can make this argument now seriously it is not ridiculous to think that
Scotland's economic prospects are better as part of the $18 trillion Eurozone $2.7 trillion UK according to polls
Scotland is still undecided about its political future Support for independence rose slightly above 50 in the years after Brexit but recent polls from sources as the sunday times yougov ipsos murray and scotch show that more scots are in favor of staying in the union than independence, those figures, however, are s The somewhat misleading support for independence and union comes and goes, but remains in a relatively stable equilibrium.
A significant number of Scottish voters representing between 7 and 15 of the electorate identify as undecided and this is where it seems England cannot help itself. Liz Trust, for example, recently. said the proper approach to dealing with
Scotland was to ignore it and its attention-seeking leader Nicola Sturgeon England ridicules
Scotland at her peril. London's reluctance to pass another referendum reveals a genuine fear that
will choose to leave, which would be disastrous not only for
Scotland but also for England. London risks increasing support among undecided Scots if another referendum is held. Emotional and visceral economic interest may temper such sentiments, but if a nation as proud and ancient as
Scotland feels that its identity and democratic agency are being trampled, the polls could turn unexpectedly and sharply as they did when England surprisingly voted to leave. the european union, which leads to the 2 trillion pound question can
scotland become independent? or hold an independence referendum as its leaders have promised for next year a House of Commons document examining that very issue runs to no less than 99 pages and concludes that the issue is uncertain the UK supreme court must decide whether the
scotland referendum is within its purview as the uk government seems unlikely to grant another section 30 order if the high court decides that
scotland does not have that authority, the scottish national party could choose to hold an illegal referendum on the catalonia in 2017 but it seems the snp has already opted for a different tactic choosing instead to fight the next uk general election as a de facto referendum on scots h independence all things considered legalities are essential but they are also subject to change.
The British-Irish union of 1800 was also supposed to last forever on paper only for the political situation to change and for Ireland to claim independence a century later if a majority of Scots want independence and make it known through a legal referendum, an illegal referendum, a landslide for the snp in the next uk general election or a massive campaign of peaceful civil disobedience
will find a legal justification for this, the more pressing question is whether scottish national pride stoked by anger over brexit english contempt and british economic underperformance create the basis for scots to demand their independence despite the economic and political legal consequences of such a move the scottish national party is betting that they
will, of course, the snp got it wrong in 2014 but the world has changed since then and england knows it better than anyone ne c ow sudden nationalist sentiment can lead to previously unthinkable results that is the main reason the UK is leaving the European Union and it would be ironic if it was also the reason the UK political experiment ends after 315 years and counting i have been your host shivan from caspian report special thanks to jacob shapiro for researching and writing this article to learn more about jacob's work and his platform cognitive investments visit www.cognitive.investments in any case thanks for your time and saul